Cryptocurrency
The Fluctuations and Future of Bitcoin
2024-11-26
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has seen significant price movements recently. On Tuesday, it was around $93,000, having retreated from levels just below $100,000 last week. Monday witnessed the third-largest day of outflows from bitcoin ETFs on record.
Profit-Taking and Investor Behavior
Bitcoin market watchers note that much of the selling is coming from relatively new buyers who entered the market above $56,000. The “bitcoin $100,000” price milestone has proven elusive. Some analysts attribute this to skittish investors taking profits as companies continue to purchase the crypto asset.For instance, after Donald Trump's electoral victory, bitcoin's rally picked up steam with optimism regarding a more crypto-friendly administration and Congress. However, the rally has slowed lately, likely due to profit-taking by relatively new investors, while longer-term investors hold on to their bitcoin. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated in an X post Sunday that most of the selling is from 2024 buyers who bought above 56k, which is normal profit taking. Bitcoin analyst James Check also said those who purchased bitcoin around $68,000 six weeks ago are responsible for a large amount of the selling pressure this month.Investors and Bitcoin ETFs
Strong selling was also observed in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday. According to Farside Investors, it had its third-largest day of outflows at $435.3 million. This follows the large inflows seen in these products since Election Day. For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw $267.8 million of inflows on Monday, despite the net outflows for the category as a whole. Bitcoin ETFs hold bitcoin and needed to purchase it as more investors poured money into these products. This is why spot bitcoin ETFs were partially responsible for the cryptocurrency's rise this year.The Future of Bitcoin
So far this year, bitcoin prices have more than doubled, gaining roughly 120%, while the S&P 500, a broad stock index, has risen about 25%. Some analysts called for bitcoin to rise above $100,000, but others were skeptical. Novogratz in a CNBC interview last week said he expected a price correction, though not one that would send bitcoin below $80,000.The recent weakness comes at a time when more companies are purchasing bitcoin. MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced the purchase of another $5.4 billion worth of bitcoin on Monday morning. Companies like Marathon Digital (MARA), Semler Scientific (SMLR), and Rumble (RUM) have also committed to purchasing bitcoin. If this trend continues, it could bolster bitcoin prices, as Coinbase Research stated. “We think that these corporate inflows represent an increasingly important source of capital inflow into the space as corporate purchase plans that we think may be relatively more price inelastic,” Coinbase researchers wrote in recent commentary. “This could contribute to continued market momentum in the near term.”