Темпы изменения курса рубля
В ближайшее время, примерно до 20 декабря, рубль продолжит крепнуть. Мы можем достичь уровня в 95 руб. за доллар. Но затем ситуация развернется, и мы вновь вернемся к трехзначным значениям. Например, в диапазон 100-105 за доллар.
С 29 ноября по 7 декабря российская валюта укрепилась почти на 10%, с 109,58 до 99,42 руб. за доллар. Многие участники рынка и эксперты связали это с разрешением ситуации с платежами за экспорт российского газа. Однако, по мнению Надоршина, основной эффект не связан с нормализацией ситуации на валютном рынке, а проявляется действие санкций.
Реакция рынка на санкции
Когда США ввели последний на текущий момент пакет ограничений против ряда кредитных организаций, включая Газпромбанк, реакция участников рынка была эмоциональной, и курс нашей национальной валюты опускался до 110 руб. за доллар. Эти же санкции существенно затруднили возможность проведения платежей, и у многих банков-платежных агентов по экспортно-импортным операциям за пределы нашей страны скопилась избыточная валютная масса, которую они пытаются обменять на рубли. В результате наша денежная единица укрепляется, курс уже опустился ниже 100 руб. за доллар, но это временное явление.
Как только попавшие под санкции банки-агенты решат свои проблемы и избавятся от избытка валютной массы, курс рубля вновь начнет опускаться. Правда, в начале следующего года наша денежная единица получит хорошую поддержку, и падение не будет резким.
Прогноз на 2025 год
В первом квартале 2025 года проблем с экспортом не предвидится. А вот с импортом из-за тех же самых санкций возможны сложности. Поэтому рубль в начале года будет плавно дорожать и вполне может ненадолго оказаться снова ниже 100 руб. за доллар. Но среднегодовое значение курса в 2025 году составит 110 руб. за доллар.
Ранее инвестиционный стратег УК «Арикапитал», доцент Финансового университета при правительстве РФ Сергей Суверов дал aif.ru свой прогноз курса рубля до конца 2024 года. Он также указывал на сложности, которые могут возникнуть в будущем из-за санкций.
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