Australia's new car market is on an exciting trajectory this year, despite facing difficulties from private buyers and evolving brand rankings. Emerging Chinese brands are making significant strides, while traditional leaders are seeing shifts in their positions. Let's delve into the details and uncover the key players and trends.

Uncover the Dynamics of Australia's New Car Market

Booming Ute Favorites and Market Challenges

The Australian new car marketplace is like a rollercoaster ride, with booming ute favorites, fast-selling new makes and models, and a mix of macro and micro-economic challenges. Private new car buyers are taking a step back as the cost of living and high interest rates bite. However, with one month of sales remaining, Australia is still on track for a record year of new car registrations across various market segments.In this dynamic market, certain brands are emerging as clear winners. Chery and BYD have been on the move, posting significant growth. Just one month's figures to go, and it's safe to say that these brands have been performing exceptionally well. Chery has more than doubled its volume, while BYD has seen an increase of over 68%.

The Changing Face of the Top Ten Brands

The changing landscape of the top ten brands gives us insights into the losers and also-rans of 2024. Mazda, which was once a perennial number two, has slipped to third place with almost a 5% decline. Hyundai is also behind its upstart cousin Kia, which now has a ute. The dual-cab effect is evident in Kia's dominance of overall top-selling models.At the top end, Mercedes-Benz is facing challenges, tracking almost 18% down year-to-date. In contrast, BMW is almost on par with its 2023 total, and Audi is 20-something percent off. Jaguar, against all odds, is almost 40% up year-to-date. But it's important to note that BMW Australia sells almost 40 cars for Jaguar.Considering volume brands (4000 or more units for the Jan-Nov period in 2023), Jeep, RAM, Skoda, and Renault are the biggest losers of 2024, each losing over 45% of their respective volume.

Australia's Top Car Models: RAV4 and Ranger

Australians have a clear preference for utes and SUVs. The FCAI Chief Executive Tony Weber stated that consumer preference remains strong for these vehicle types, with SUVs and light commercial vehicles making up the top ten new vehicles sold, while passenger vehicles saw a decline to a monthly market share of just 13.7 per cent.Ford Ranger easily leads the pack in the country's top five, followed by Toyota RAV4, Toyota HiLux, Isuzu D-Max, and Mitsubishi Outlander. Toyota Corolla gets an honorable mention as the top-placed non-highrider in the bottom half of the top ten.Toyota RAV4 not only is one of the country's top-sellers but also topped the table as the most improved. It registered almost 54,000 units in the Jan-Nov 2024 period, an increase of over 26,000 after supply issues in 2023. The Ford Everest also performed well, with almost 11,000 units up on its 2023 figure.The remainder of the top five most improved models includes Kia Cerato, Hyundai Kona, and BYD Seal. The Kia Cerato almost tripled its 2023 volume, Hyundai Kona was 61% up, and the BYD Seal registered almost 6000 sales in its first year.

Data Sources and Market Insights

This is an overview of the latest release of the official Australian new car market scorecard, VFACTS. Published this week and covering the year-to-date to the end of November, VFACTS is a key barometer of the new car marketplace. But it's not without its limitations.VFACTS records new car registrations, not sales, and is essentially unaudited. Carmakers supply their own numbers on a "you show me yours and I'll show you mine" basis. It also doesn't cover all manufacturers, as Tesla and Polestar withdrew from the program in 2023 due to concerns about proper representation.The absence of Tesla and Polestar can be accounted for in the numbers, but the sales versus registration delineation is more complex. During tough times, brands often pre-register new cars to maintain their stats. This tactic is commonly used at key periods like the end of the financial year and the end of the calendar year, or when there are significant legislative or regulatory changes.As we approach Christmas and the implementation of Australia's new vehicle emission rules on January 1, the market continues to evolve.

Key Stats: A Record Year Still in Sight

November was the best monthly volume since July, with just over 99,000 registrations, but it is almost 12% down on the same month in 2023. Yet, year-to-date, the market remains up, and with an "average" December, it should still generate an annual record. Currently, we're looking at around 1.25 million new vehicles.From an historical perspective, the 2024 year-to-date result is strong. The first half of 2024 recorded market growth of 8.7 per cent compared to 2023. Since July, we have seen a decline of 8.2 per cent. But who is buying these cars? Private buyers are continuing to struggle, with a 16.6 per cent decline in November compared to 2023. Business and government registrations, on the other hand, are up year-on-year. Privates have accounted for more than half of all registrations this year, with business around 37%. Rental fleet volumes are also off.In line with FCAI's often anti-EV rhetoric, November recorded another disappointing result for the sale of electric vehicles, while Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid accounted for 16.9 per cent of November sales compared to 9.9 per cent last year.