Stocks
Santa Rally: Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks for December's Second Half
2024-12-05
The Santa Rally is a fascinating aspect of the stock market, where equities have historically shown stronger gains during the final stretch of December. This trend, often influenced by factors such as holiday cheer, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and investor optimism, has been a recurring pattern for decades. But what exactly makes December stand out, and which stocks have historically outperformed during this period? Let's delve into the numbers and uncover the secrets of this seasonal sweet spot for stocks.

Unlock the Potential of the Santa Rally with These Top Stocks

December: A Seasonal Sweet Spot For Stocks

After a remarkable rally in November, with the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY – surging by 6%, there is a sense that momentum could carry forward into December. George Smith, the portfolio strategist at LPL Financials, believes that historically, December has been a good month for stock market seasonals. Since 1950, December ranks as the second-best month for the S&P 500, delivering an average return of 1.6%. Only November performs slightly better, with a historical average of 1.8%. Smith further highlights that the second half of December typically accounts for the majority of these gains, giving rise to the well-known "Santa Rally" effect. Data shows that stocks tend to experience a lull or even a slight decline during the first half of the month. However, as mid-December approaches, momentum begins to build, and the upward trajectory gains steam. Near the 11th trading day of the month, the upward movement starts to accelerate, leading to the expected Santa Rally.

Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks With Strong Christmas Seasonality

For investors seeking to capitalize on the Santa Rally, certain stocks have a proven track record of delivering significant gains in the latter half of December. Looking back at the past 20 years of data, here are the top 10 S&P 500 stocks that have historically shown the strongest average returns between Dec. 12 and Dec. 31:Illumina, Inc. ILM has an average return of +4.94% and a median return of +5.17%. It has witnessed a maximum profit of +19.39% and a maximum loss of -10.98%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 4.27, it is a stock that has performed exceptionally well during the Christmas season.Invesco Ltd. IVZ has an average return of +4.34% and a median return of +3.04%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +23.10% and a maximum loss of -5.10%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.72, it is another stock that has shown strong Christmas seasonality.Valero Energy Corporation VLO has an average return of +3.78% and a median return of +4.37%. It has reached a maximum profit of +12.89% and a maximum loss of -8.52%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.70, it is a reliable performer during this period.Western Digital Corporation WDC has an average return of +3.73% and a median return of +3.84%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +24.23% and a maximum loss of -13.26%. With a win ratio of 70% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.75, it is a stock that investors should consider.Mohawk Industries, Inc. MHK has an average return of +3.47% and a median return of +2.19%. It has reached a maximum profit of +20.26% and a maximum loss of -4.35%. With a win ratio of 70% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.18, it is a stock with good Christmas seasonality.Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX has an average return of +3.34% and a median return of +4.60%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +25.84% and a maximum loss of -15.06%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.03, it is a stock that has performed well during the Christmas season.BlackRock, Inc. BLK has an average return of +3.32% and a median return of +3.62%. It has reached a maximum profit of +11.64% and a maximum loss of -1.69%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.49, it is a reliable stock with strong Christmas seasonality.Global Payments Inc. GPN has an average return of +3.30% and a median return of +3.35%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +12.38% and a maximum loss of -8.28%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.44, it is a stock that investors should keep an eye on.CBRE Group, Inc. CBRE has an average return of +3.20% and a median return of +3.24%. It has reached a maximum profit of +13.27% and a maximum loss of -7.11%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.22, it is a stock with good Christmas seasonality.Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL has an average return of +3.14% and a median return of +1.80%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +36.95% and a maximum loss of -14.54%. With a win ratio of 55% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.36, it is a stock that offers potential during the Christmas season.These stocks have demonstrated consistent performance during the Christmas season and could be valuable additions to an investor's portfolio. However, it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
Friday's Stock Stories: Market Moves in Next Trading Session
2024-12-06
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CNBC TV's Producers at Work

As the S&P 500 retreated from its record, CNBC TV's producers were closely monitoring the market. Reagan National Defense Forum was a key event, with Morgan Brennan live in California. The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is 3.3% from its recent high, while Archer Aviation has soared 135% in a month. Rocket Lab USA has doubled in value, and Axon Enterprise is up 56%. AeroVironment, focused on drones, is down about 25% in a month and 30% from its 52-week high. Wahid Nawabi, CEO of AeroVironment, will be on CNBC TV with Brennan at 5 p.m. Eastern.The numbers for volatility remain historically low. Kelly Evans spoke with market veteran Jay Bowen on "The Exchange" at 1 p.m., who predicted more volatility and 5 to 10% pullbacks.

Software to Lead the Way?

Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf noted on "Closing Bell" that Nvidia's chart is just OK while Microsoft is starting to break out. Microsoft is 5.5% from its July high and up 4.5% in four days, with a 17% gain in 2024. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is up 34% in 2024 and hit a new high this week. DeGraaf believes software will be the tech leader into 2025, outperforming chips. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 42% year to date but 12% from its July high.

The New Industrials

Kelly Evans profiled guests recommending "industrial technology companies, disguised as regular industrials." Bowen highlighted names like Eaton, Corning, Teledyne, and Parker Hannifin. Eaton is up about 10% in a month and 2.4% from its Nov. 26 high. Corning is up 5% in a month and 2.5% from its Oct. 29 high. Teledyne is 3% from its November high and up about 11% in three months. Parker Hannifin is 2.5% from its Nov. 25 high and up 21% in three months. Talen Energy hit a new high on Thursday but dropped 2.5% from that level. It's up about 18% in a month and 54% in three months. Quanta Services is 4.3% from its Nov. 26 high, up 6.5% in a month and 33% in three months. Clean Harbors is 7.6% from its late October high. Cummins hit a new all-time high on Thursday and is up about 28% in three months and 58% in 2024.

Dollar General's Story

CNBC stock man Tom Rotunno monitored Dollar General on Thursday. The company missed earnings expectations and ended flat at the close. CEO Todd Vasos noted less customer traffic in the last week of the month as customers struggle. Dollar General is also testing same-day delivery in dozens of stores. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree are more than 50% from their March highs.

Amazon on the Rise

Amazon hit a new all-time high on Thursday. It's up 7.2% in a week and about 11% in a month. Thanks to CNBC's Chris Hayes for the stat.

Uber and Lyft on the Road

On Friday, we'll keep an eye on Uber and Lyft. Both stocks took a hit on Thursday, falling roughly 10% each. They are both about 25% from their 52-week highs. The ride-sharing stocks dropped after Alphabet's Waymo announced it's moving into the Miami market and launching a robotaxi service in 2026. There's a lot of action in the market, and we'll see what happens next.
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SoundHound's Rally Continues with Torchy's Tacos Deal
2024-12-05
SoundHound stock has been making waves in the market. On Thursday, its rally continued as shares soared once again. This comes after the voice AI company announced a significant deal with Torchy's Tacos, a renowned "damn good tacos" maker, to utilize its technology at all 130 of the restaurant's locations. The upward trend is quite remarkable, with shares showing consistent growth.

SoundHound's Tech Takes On The Restaurant Industry

SoundHound's Public Listing and Industry Reach

Santa Clara-based SoundHound AI (SOUN) went public in 2022. The company's AI voice technology is not only available on various devices but also in business kiosks and call centers. It has gained significant traction in the restaurant industry, having signed deals with renowned names like Chipotle, Jersey Mike's, White Castle, Panda Express, and Church's Texas Chicken. This wide range of partnerships showcases SoundHound's growing influence in the food service sector.The restaurant industry is constantly evolving, and SoundHound's technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing the customer experience. By integrating its voice AI into Torchy's Tacos, the company is providing an additional and convenient way for customers to order their favorite food. As Thai Tran, Torchy's chief technology officer, stated, "At Torchy's Tacos, we want our guests to have the best experience every time they engage with the brand. Partnering with SoundHound and using their Smart Ordering system, we are able to give guests another way to easily order our food."

SoundHound's Newfound Spotlight and Investor Interest

Previously a relatively unnoticed stock, SoundHound suddenly found itself in the spotlight on Wall Street after AI giant Nvidia (NVDA) disclosed its investment stake in the company. This move has sparked a lot of interest among investors. SoundHound Chief Executive Keyvan Mohajer emphasized in a recent interview with Investor's Business Daily that "we think every product is going to benefit from voice AI. And then every service also is going to benefit from an AI agent. Those are the two pillars of our business."The impact of this investment has been significant. At the close, SoundHound stock surged 31.3% to 13.33, bringing it close to its intraday record high of 18.14 achieved in May 2022. The stock's performance is also impressive when compared to its moving averages. It is about 117% ahead of its 50-day moving average and roughly 153% north of its 200-day line. However, with the stock showing such a rapid increase in a short period, it is advisable for investors to take partial profits at the current level.Traders can use various strategies to manage their positions. A downside reversal off highs can be a signal to trim holdings, followed by an undercut of the prior day's lows. Shareholders can also utilize the 10-day and 21-day moving averages as areas to lock in gains. Buying a stock that is wildly extended is risky, and savvy investors should wait for the stock to settle down and form a new buyable area, ideally a high-tight flag, which is a rare and bullish pattern that leading stocks tend to develop in strong markets.SoundHound stock has a perfect IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 99, indicating that it ranks in the leading 1% of all stocks in terms of 12-month performance. This further highlights its strength and potential in the market.Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
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