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Futures

Cattle Futures May Face Early Pressure on Monday

2024-11-25

Cattle futures are set to encounter early pressure on Monday, presenting an interesting scenario in the agricultural markets. The cattle complex showed signs of strength on Friday, with feeder cattle taking the lead and pushing through technical resistance. This marks the second week where feeder cattle have outperformed live cattle, attracting increased buying interest.

Unraveling the Dynamics of Cattle Futures on Monday

BULL SIDE

Feeder cattle continue to drive the cattle complex higher, with the March contract reaching its highest level since July 26. This upward momentum indicates a positive sentiment among traders, who are optimistic about the future of the cattle market. The continued tightness in cattle numbers is seen as a key factor limiting the downside price potential of beef prices, providing a solid foundation for bullish traders.

Moreover, July hog futures closed above $100 and achieved a new contract high, while June is knocking on the door of a new high. Traders are bullish on the demand for hogs as the year progresses, suggesting a broader positive trend in the livestock sector. The packers' potential aggression early in the week to obtain the hogs they need before the Thanksgiving holiday adds another layer of excitement to the market.

BEAR SIDE

The Cattle on Feed report came in slightly bearish across all three categories. This unexpected development may trigger selling at the start of the day as traders may not have been properly positioned ahead of the report. Cash cattle did not perform as well as some early trade had indicated, with prices showing only a steady to $1.00 increase. This could be a disappointment for those expecting more significant price movements.

The further weakness of pork cutouts on Friday added to the overall weakness seen throughout the week. This may lead to renewed liquidation as traders reassess their positions. Additionally, the holiday-shortened week may cause the packers to be less aggressive in their purchasing, as they may have already met a significant portion of their needs. This could put downward pressure on futures prices.

For our next livestock update, be sure to visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. We will also provide periodic updates on the futures markets through our Quick Takes throughout the day.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been in a state of flux recently. Just a few hours ago, it was sitting on the verge of reaching the $100,000 milestone. At present, it stands at $97,500, having hit a high of around $99,800 on the previous Friday afternoon. The cryptocurrency's journey since Donald Trump's decisive election victory on Nov. 5 has been remarkable. It has surged by approximately 40%, fueled by expectations of a crypto-friendly administration and Congress. The recent breakout from a pennant pattern indicates that the strong bullish move is likely to continue. This pattern projects a price target of around $118,000. However, investors need to keep a close eye on important support levels on Bitcoin's chart, such as around $93,000 and $70,000. These levels will play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of Bitcoin.

Unlock the Potential of Bitcoin with These Key Levels

Bitcoin's Recent Price Movements

Bitcoin's price has been on an upward trajectory since the election victory. It has shown remarkable resilience and strength in the face of market fluctuations. The recent breakout from the pennant pattern is a significant development that has caught the attention of investors worldwide. This pattern suggests that the upward momentum is likely to continue, with a potential target of $118,000. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. Therefore, investors need to be vigilant and stay updated on the latest market trends.

Another important aspect to consider is the support levels on Bitcoin's chart. These levels act as a safety net for the price and provide a cushion during periods of market downturn. The $93,000 and $70,000 levels are particularly significant as they have been tested in the past and have held strong. If the price were to fall below these levels, it could signal a potential reversal in the trend. On the other hand, if the price manages to hold above these levels, it could lead to further gains.

Futures and Major Indexes

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are showing a positive trend, with an increase of 0.7%. This indicates that the market is expecting a higher opening for the major indexes. Similarly, S&P 500 futures are up by 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are also showing a similar upward movement. These futures movements suggest that the overall market sentiment is positive and that investors are optimistic about the future.

The performance of the futures markets is closely linked to the performance of the underlying assets. As such, the upward movement in the futures markets is likely to translate into higher opening prices for the major indexes. This could lead to a continuation of the current bullish trend and potentially drive Bitcoin's price even higher. However, it is important to remember that futures markets are not always a reliable indicator of future market movements. Therefore, investors should use them as a tool for analysis and not rely solely on them for making investment decisions.

In the world of finance, Monday witnessed an interesting turn of events. Futures tied to Canada's main stock index showed signs of growth, taking inspiration from their Wall Street counterparts. This comes as investors eagerly await a week filled with significant economic data from both domestic and US sources.

Unraveling the Dynamics of Canadian and US Stock Markets

Stock Market Movements and Cues

December futures on the S&P/TSX index were up by 0.26% at 6:19 a.m. ET (11:19 GMT). On Wall Street, Dow futures reached a record high, driven by investor optimism due to the nomination of fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent is expected to focus on tax and spending cuts. This week, investors will closely examine the US Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the country's gross domestic product estimates, and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Back in Canada, all eyes are on the third-quarter annualized GDP data, which is likely to fall short of the Bank of Canada's estimate. This data could have a significant impact on the Canadian central bank's decision regarding interest-rate cuts next month. Traders currently anticipate a 77.2% chance of a quarter-point cut in December.In the materials sector, gold prices dropped after a five-session rally to a three-week high, putting pressure on the sector. The selection of US President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary has also affected safe-haven buying. Meanwhile, the energy sector has gained attention as oil prices edged lower following a 6% increase last week.The composite index closed at a record high on Friday, with industrial shares climbing and investors cheered by upbeat retail sales data.In corporate news, TD Bank is taking steps to comply with laws prohibiting money laundering by installing US government-ordered monitors and reassuring employees of its resource capabilities.

Commodity Market Insights

Gold: $2,684.63; -1.03% [GOL/]US crude: $70.87; -0.52% [O/R]Brent crude: $74.83; -0.45% [O/R]For Canadian markets news, click on the following codes:TSX market report [.TO]Canadian dollar and bonds report [CAD/] [CA/]Reuters global stocks poll for CanadaCanadian markets directory($1 = 1.3959 Canadian dollars)(Reported by Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Edited by Shreya Biswas)