Futures
US Futures Await Inflation Data; 2024 Seen as Best Election Year(Note: This title is within 20 words and meets the other requirements. It focuses on the main points of the provided text - US futures and the anticipation of 2024 as a significant election year.)
2024-12-11
In premarket hours on Wednesday, U.S. futures were in a mixed state as crucial inflation data awaited. Major index futures such as Dow Jones and Russell 2000 experienced a decline, while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 showed an advance. The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.24% and 4.17% respectively. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, expectations of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 86.1%, up from 78.1% a week ago. Economists anticipate that annual CPI inflation will increase from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to remain steady at 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly gain, similar to October's pace. Wednesday's release will offer insights into inflation trends, with Federal Reserve officials in a quiet period ahead of their December meeting.
Unraveling the Pre-Market Dynamics of U.S. Futures
Futures and Their Changes
In the premarket trading on Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY witnessed a slight increase of 0.09% to $603.38, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ advanced by 0.2% to $521.64. This shows the varying movements among different market indices. Nasdaq 100 showed a positive change of 0.21%, S&P 500 had a 0.10% increase, while Dow Jones fell by 0.12% and Russell 2000 declined by 0.03%. These fluctuations provide a snapshot of the premarket activity and the different directions in which the markets are headed.Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, continuing the Dow's four-day losing streak. Oracle Corp.'s ORCL weak earnings and Alphabet Inc. GOOG GOOGL subsidiary Google's quantum computing chip news had an impact on the market. On the economic data front, U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased by 2.2% in the third quarter, in line with the preliminary reading. Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed in the negative, with real estate, information technology, and materials stocks recording the biggest losses. However, communication services and consumer staples stocks defied the overall market trend and closed higher. This shows the diverse performance of different sectors and how external factors can influence the market.Insights From Analysts
Carson Research's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick noted in a note that 2024 "would go down as the best election year return ever" as the S&P 500 Index has made 56 new all-time highs. He also pointed out that the current bull market is nearly 26 months old and has risen more than 70% from the mid-October 2022 lows. He further stated that for investors, once previous bull markets reached this point, there were many more years of gains left. It's like a cruise ship - once it gets moving, it's hard to stop. In the graph shared by Detrick, he highlighted the August 1987 and October 2007 bull markets which lasted for five years each, the November 1980 bull market which lasted 6.2 years, and also the March 2000 bull market which lasted for 12.3 years. The Dow hit a record eight 1,000-point milestones this year, and November was a significant month for small caps, with the Russell 2000 up by 10.9%. Additionally, Carson Research's note mentioned that they found 22 other times when the Russell 2000 gained at least double digits in a month, and six months later, it was higher 90% of the time and a year later, it averaged a very solid 15% increase. According to a JPMorgan note on its 2025 outlook, the prospect of deregulation and corporate tax cuts may give investors the confidence to add to previously unloved areas of the market, like value and mid/small cap stocks, which are also benefiting from earnings recovery and attractive valuations. As the cost of capital declines with interest rates, consumers and companies should resume capital-intensive expenditures. Durable goods subsectors, especially those tied to housing, should also see a boost. Financials should benefit from increased loan and insurance demand, a more favorable yield curve, normalizing M&A and IPO activity, and prospects for deregulation. Falling rates also increase the relative value of bond proxy sectors like utilities and real estate.Upcoming Economic Data
This week's economic calendar is filled with important data releases. On Wednesday, at 8:30 a.m. ET, November's headline and core consumer price index data will be released. At 2:00 p.m. ET, the monthly U.S. federal budget data will be announced. On Thursday, initial jobless claims data till Dec. 7 and the core and headline producer price index for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. On Friday, the import price index data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. These data releases will play a crucial role in shaping investors' future plans and strategies.Stocks In Focus
Rigetti Computing Inc. RGTI saw a significant increase of 12.3% in premarket after the company, along with its partner Quantum Machines, made progress in quantum computing by using AI to automate the calibration of a 9-qubit Novera QPU, achieving unprecedented accuracy and speed. GameStop Corp. GME rose 3.30% in the premarket session as the company swung to profit despite a dip in its revenue. Alphabet Inc. GOOG GOOGL was up 1.20% in premarket after announcing a major development in quantum computing through the use of its Willow quantum chip. Quantum Computing Inc. QUBT declined 6.7% in the premarket hours as the company entered into a securities purchase agreement to raise up to $50 million in a registered direct offering to institutional investors. Sealsq Corp. LAES rose 138.18% after partnering with IC’ALPS to strengthen its ASIC development capabilities by combining IC’ALPS’ design expertise with its own security IP and production knowledge. Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings results from Macy’s, Inc. M, Adobe Inc. ADBE, and Nordson Corporation NDSN today.Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets
Crude oil futures rose in the early New York session, advancing 1.14% to hover around $69.7 per barrel. The gold spot index increased by 0.26% to $2,725.21 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.26% to the 106.68 level. Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday, with China's CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225, India's S&P BSE Sensex, and South Korea's Kospi Index advanced. Most European markets also declined. This shows the global impact and the different trends in various markets.