Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin's December Post-Election Surge: Bullish Year-End Target
2024-12-01
Bitcoin, a digital currency that has taken the world by storm, has been on a correction path for the majority of the just concluded week. Despite this, current market trends suggest that it is on the verge of breaking through the highly anticipated $100,000 psychological threshold. Let's delve into the historical trends and current market indicators that point to a potential spectacular rally.
Historical Post-Election December Rallies: A Bullish Trend
Bitcoin has a remarkable history of surging in December following US presidential elections. In 2016, it posted a gain of 30.8%, and in 2020, it saw a gain of 46.92%. This time around, the ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin is in a much better position. There are now Spot Bitcoin ETFs that allow institutional investors to invest in the cryptocurrency, something that was absent in the past two elections. These institutional inflows have been effective in buying up more Bitcoins, especially during profit-taking periods.November has been a great month for Bitcoin, with it ending 38% above where it started. Now, the focus is on December to see how well it performs. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $97,266.Chart Analysis: TradingView
The Fear & Greed Index indicates extreme greed in the market sentiment. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez on X has noted that this level of optimism among investors is similar to the dramatic Bitcoin price rally during the last bull run, when it surged from $15,000 to $57,000 in a few weeks. If the historical trend holds, a 30% or 46% gain in December could see Bitcoin reaching $125,000 or $140,000 before the year ends.On-Chain Data Indicates A Massive Bitcoin Supply Crunch
On-chain data reveals that over 55,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $5.34 billion, have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 72 hours. Such significant outflows often suggest a supply crunch as investors move their holdings to private wallets, indicating a long-term bullish outlook.Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading at $96,454, with a range of $95,833 to $97,201 in the past 24 hours. Given its historical December performance, strong market sentiment, and tightening supply, Bitcoin seems well-positioned to aim for the $125,000 - $140,000 range by the end of the year. However, the first resistance to break is $100,000. Breaking above this level is likely to trigger FOMO among investors. On the other hand, the Bitcoin price needs to hold above $90,000 to avoid invalidating most bullish theses. Fortunately, the average mining cost is $90,524, and Bitcoin has never fallen below this during bull runs.Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView.