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Agriculture

3 November 2024: Soybeans, Corn, & Kansas-Illinois Weather

2024-11-27

In the world of agricultural markets, overnight trading plays a crucial role in shaping the future of commodities. Soybeans and corn, two of the most significant agricultural products, have been in the spotlight recently. This article delves into the details of their overnight trading activities and explores the various factors influencing these markets.

Uncover the Secrets of Soybean and Corn Overnight Trading

Soybeans: Overnight Trading Dynamics

Soybean futures witnessed a notable increase in overnight trading. Exporters have been actively selling these oilseeds to different markets, as evidenced by the sales figures. Last week alone, significant amounts of soybeans were sold to various buyers, including an unnamed one. Since the start of the marketing year on September 1, U.S. exporters have shipped a substantial amount of soybeans overseas, showing a 12% increase compared to the same period last year. Importers have also shown increased demand, with 31.6 million metric tons agreed upon in the current marketing year, a 9% rise from the previous year.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, January delivery soybean futures rose 5 3/4¢ to $9.89 1/4 a bushel overnight. Alongside this, soymeal saw a rise of 20¢ to $291.60, while soy oil fell 0.19¢ to 42.45¢ a pound. These price movements highlight the volatility and importance of soybean markets in the global agricultural landscape.

Corn: Overnight Trading Trends

Corn futures also showed an upward trend in overnight trading. Exporters sold 454,090 metric tons of corn to Mexico, with deliveries spread across different marketing years. This follows last week's sales of 198,000 tons. U.S. exporters have been actively shipping corn to overseas buyers, with shipments reaching 9.33 million tons since September 1, a 31% increase from the same period last year. Importers have agreed to purchase 31.4 million tons of corn in the current marketing year, a significant 39% year-over-year increase.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, December delivery corn futures were up 1¢ to $4.29 a bushel. These figures demonstrate the strong demand for corn and the impact it has on global agricultural markets.

China's Soybean and Corn Seed Output

In China, soybean and corn seed output is expected to face certain changes in the 2024-2025 marketing year. Soybean seed production is forecast to decline by 3% year-over-year due to a smaller planted area. Despite this, the yield has increased by 2%. Corn seed production is expected to be mixed, with a 2% decrease from the previous year but a 26% increase compared to the prior five-year average. The planted area for corn has dropped by 7%, although it was at a 10-year high in the previous growing season. Average corn seed yield is expected to reach a five-year high due to favorable weather conditions.

Commercial soybean seed demand in China is expected to fall by 5% to about 580,000 metric tons, but high-protein varieties remain popular. These trends highlight the importance of monitoring China's agricultural seed markets and their implications for global supply.

Weather Impact in Kansas and Illinois

In Kansas, light rain and snow flurries are expected in parts of central Kansas this afternoon. Despite this, there is expected to be a negligible impact on travel ahead of Thanksgiving. On Saturday, some light snow is forecasted in eastern Kansas. In central Illinois, a mix of rain and snow is expected to start today and last into the night. While little snow accumulation is expected, some areas in east-central Illinois may see up to an inch on the ground. These weather conditions can have a significant impact on agricultural activities and transportation in these regions.

Temperatures in the area are set to drop on Thanksgiving Day and continue to be low through early next week. Single-digit temperatures are forecasted starting from Friday and lasting through the weekend, which can pose challenges for agricultural operations and daily life.

The USDA made a significant announcement on Monday with the release of its final Crop Progress report. This report holds great importance as it provides insights into the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the nation's leading winter wheat state. Let's delve into the details and see what the agency has to share.

Unveiling the Insights of the USDA's Crop Progress Report

Planting Now Complete

During the week ending Nov. 24, winter wheat planting in Kansas witnessed a 1 percentage point increase and reached 100%. Despite having only 3.3 days suitable for fieldwork, farmers managed to complete the planting. This progress is 1 percentage point ahead of the same time last year and on par with the five-year average. The emergence of the crop also showed remarkable growth, increasing by 5 percentage points to reach 96%. It is ahead of last year's progress of 92% and the five-year average of 90%.The week ending Nov. 24 saw a significant improvement in the condition of the winter wheat crop. According to the USDA, Kansas winter wheat was rated 3% very poor, 9% poor, 33% fair, 46% good, and 9% excellent. Over the month of November, the overall winter wheat condition in the state has been steadily improving. At the beginning of November, only 40% of the crop was rated good/excellent, and almost a quarter was rated very poor/poor. But as of the latest USDA report, the combined percentage of good/excellent winter wheat has climbed to 55%, and the combined percentage of very poor/poor winter wheat has decreased to just 12%.The replenishment of soil moisture supplies in recent weeks, after the drought has lessened throughout Kansas, has played a crucial role in the improvement of winter wheat conditions. As of the week ending Nov. 24, topsoil moisture supplies were rated over 80% adequate/surplus, which is a marked improvement from the beginning of the month when over half the topsoil moisture was rated very short/short. Kansas subsoil moisture supplies have also seen a significant improvement this month. While 65% of the state's subsoil moisture was rated very short/short at the end of Nov. 3, about the same percentage - 66% - was rated adequate/surplus by the end of Nov. 24.

In a weekend turn of events that took many by surprise, Texas attorney Brooke Rollins emerged as President-elect Donald Trump's pick to helm the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Rollins, the president and CEO of the conservative nonprofit America First Policy Institute (AFPI), founded in 2021, is set to play a crucial role in safeguarding American farmers, who are the very backbone of our nation.

"Brooke Rollins: A Champion for America's Agricultural Communities"

Background

Rollins, 52, hails from Glen Rose, Texas. Growing up on a family farm, she actively participated in FFA, serving as a state officer, and was also involved in 4-H. Her family still resides in Fort Worth. In a Sunday post on X, expressing gratitude for well wishes after the nomination, she emphasized the impact of her agriculture teacher at Glen Rose High School, Gary Rosenbusch, who she credits with changing her life.Rollins graduated from Texas A&M University in 1994, becoming the first woman to be named student body president. She then went on to earn her law degree from the University of Texas. After law school, she worked at Hughes & Luce LLP in Dallas, which later merged with K&L Gates. She served as the president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) for 15 years and was also former Texas governor Rick Perry's policy director. In 2018, she was appointed an assistant to the president for intergovernmental and technology initiatives and director of the Office of American Innovation. She held these positions until May 2020, when Trump appointed her director of the Domestic Policy Council until the end of his first administration. After leaving office in 2021, she co-founded the AFPI with former Trump adviser Larry Kudlow and has served as its president and CEO since.

Policy History

During her first year in the Trump administration, Rollins is reported to have played a role in the First Steps Act, a bill that overhauled the criminal justice system and was signed into law in December 2018. While at the TPPF, the organization was involved in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the Affordable Care Act and influenced various other conservative policy initiatives in Texas.At the AFPI, Rollins and the organization were deeply engaged with the Trump 2024 campaign on policy issues. Their website features an agenda with 10 "pillars," emphasizing the need for policies that put American citizens first. However, there is limited information on the AFPI website or in its agenda regarding how it views agriculture policy, except for calls to ban Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland. Politico reported that Rollins' ag policy experience compared to other members of the Trump team's shortlist for USDA leadership led to intense "jockeying" over the role until the Saturday announcement.If confirmed, Rollins will be responsible for overseeing the USDA's $430 billion yearly budget and its significant influence on the food industry. As agriculture secretary, she may collaborate closely with Trump's Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is expected to have a major impact on the food and agriculture sectors if confirmed.