Unraveling the Future of Ripple's XRP

Ripple's Stablecoin: RLUSD vs USDT

The New York Department of Financial Services is reportedly close to approving Ripple's new stablecoin, RLUSD. Set to launch on Dec. 4 pending approval, it aims to provide a U.S.-regulated alternative to Tether's dominant USDT. Ripple's business revolves around RippleNet, a blockchain-based global payments network offering faster and more cost-effective cross-border solutions compared to SWIFT. XRP facilitates these transactions but is entangled in a legal battle with the SEC, which alleges it's an unregistered security. With the case in the appeals process, there's speculation it could be dropped in 2025, potentially clearing the way for XRP.

Ripple's move into the stablecoin market comes amid increased competition. PayPal and other companies are also developing stablecoins to capitalize on this lucrative sector. XRP's price resurgence marks a significant turnaround after years of underperformance due to the legal battle. Its potential entry into the stablecoin market could further boost its growth and signal confidence in its future.

Ripple v. SEC: Next Bull Run?

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has set a Jan. 15 deadline for the SEC to file its last arguments. The SEC sued Ripple in 2020, alleging XRP sales were an unregistered securities offering. Ripple contends XRP is a digital currency, not a security. This classification is crucial as a ruling against Ripple could set a regulatory precedent for other cryptocurrencies. Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo predicts the SEC might drop the case, following the SEC's notice of appeal and Ripple's cross-appeal. Optimism is growing as current SEC Chair Gary Gensler prepares to step down in January, with many anticipating a more favorable stance toward digital assets.

In a recent Fox Business interview, Giancarlo's statement added to the speculation. The prolonged exchanges and disputes over XRP's legal status have shaped the crypto regulatory landscape. Ripple's defense argues the SEC's approach lacks clarity and XRP doesn't meet the security definition.

XRP Price History: Major Breakout in 2025?

Between 2012 and 2018, XRP saw dramatic price changes. Starting at less than $0.01 in 2012 with minimal activity, it surged to over $1.00 by December 2017 driven by interest in Ripple's technology and speculative trading. In 2018, it hit an all-time high of $3.84 but then crashed to $0.60 by February and stabilized around $0.30-$0.40 by year-end, highlighting its growth and vulnerability to market trends.

XRP experienced a significant price surge in 2021 but waned in 2022. By Nov. 30, 2024, it was trading at $1.94 per token. Unlike Ethereum, which consistently hit new highs, XRP lagged behind, peaking in early 2021 due to the SEC's legal complaint in 2020, which caused its price to drop sharply.

Bitcoin vs XRP: Advantages of XRP Ledger (XRPL)

XRPL is a decentralized public blockchain enabling quick transfers of XRP, fiat currencies, and digital assets. Jed McCaleb founded Ripple Labs in 2012 with the vision of creating XRP Ledger. The initiative aimed to develop a robust ledger technology to support global payment infrastructure and tackle inefficiencies in traditional financial systems.

Ripple Labs introduced XRPL with a unique consensus mechanism, the "XRP Ledger Consensus Protocol," which ensures transaction order and validity without energy-intensive mining. Validators, a subset of nodes, validate transactions to prevent fraud and maintain ledger integrity. XRP Ledger XRPUSD prioritizes scalability and rapid transaction settlement, capable of processing a significant volume of transactions per second.

Benefits comparison:

XRP: Fast - 3-5 seconds to settle; Low-Cost - $0.0002/tx; Scalable - 1,500 tx per second.

Bitcoin: Slow - 500 seconds to settle; High-Cost - $0.50/tx; Limited Scalability - 3 tx per second.

XRP ETFs on the Way?

The potential resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has sparked speculation about his successor. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood's chief legal officer, is a top contender. Gensler's tenure has been complex, balancing enforcement and approvals. Under his leadership, the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs, with a bipartisan alignment. He also approved spot Ethereum ETFs. The SEC faces additional crypto ETF proposals, including a Solana ETF and a spot XRP ETF.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse believes an XRP ETF is inevitable. SBI Holdings CEO Yoshitaka Kitao suggests Ripple should prepare for an IPO once legal challenges are resolved. The SEC's recent notice of appeal has prolonged the dispute, but speculation grows that the SEC may drop its appeal.

How High Can XRP Price Go?

On Nov. 16, the XRP price reached $1 for the first time since 2021, and the market cap surged 26.76% to $57.98 billion with a trading volume of $13.13 billion. CryptoQuant highlighted a major spike in XRP open interest, reaching ATH. Rising open interest indicates increased market activity and bullish sentiment.

Key drivers include Gary Gensler's SEC departure, fueling optimism for a more crypto-friendly environment. Political shifts with Donald Trump's election victory also boosted market sentiment. XRP ETF speculation and growing institutional interest have attracted attention. However, XRP's daily relative strength index (RSI) has remained above 70 in November, suggesting an overextended uptrend. Historically, XRP tends to correct after hitting overbought RSI levels.

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto noted historical trends. On the two-week price chart, when the 21 EMA crossed above the 55 EMA in 2017, XRP surged by approximately 902.85%. A similar pattern seems to be forming now, with potential targets of a 584% rise to $4 or a 900% gain to $5.5. Another analyst Armando Pantoja predicts XRP's next price target between $2 and $2.10, with a potential path to $8 if it reaches $2.

Fibonacci extension levels suggest XRP could reach up to $18 or $20. But some analysts remain skeptical. Renowned commodity trader Peter Brandt predicts XRP could plunge to zero against Bitcoin due to an 11-year head-and-shoulders (H&S) chart pattern. However, he also suggests XRP's price is set for a significant uptick in 2025 with a "massive coil" identified on its technical chart pattern, making a price flight towards $10 a reality.

XRP's recent price movements were preceded by the maximum compression of its Bollinger Bands, signaling potential volatility. Now, the bands have widened, but XRP's price remains below the upper curve and has been declining for three consecutive days amid market disturbances, suggesting a cooling phase or consolidation before the next major move.