Stocks
Santa Rally: Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks for December's Second Half
2024-12-05
The Santa Rally is a fascinating aspect of the stock market, where equities have historically shown stronger gains during the final stretch of December. This trend, often influenced by factors such as holiday cheer, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and investor optimism, has been a recurring pattern for decades. But what exactly makes December stand out, and which stocks have historically outperformed during this period? Let's delve into the numbers and uncover the secrets of this seasonal sweet spot for stocks.
Unlock the Potential of the Santa Rally with These Top Stocks
December: A Seasonal Sweet Spot For Stocks
After a remarkable rally in November, with the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY – surging by 6%, there is a sense that momentum could carry forward into December. George Smith, the portfolio strategist at LPL Financials, believes that historically, December has been a good month for stock market seasonals. Since 1950, December ranks as the second-best month for the S&P 500, delivering an average return of 1.6%. Only November performs slightly better, with a historical average of 1.8%. Smith further highlights that the second half of December typically accounts for the majority of these gains, giving rise to the well-known "Santa Rally" effect. Data shows that stocks tend to experience a lull or even a slight decline during the first half of the month. However, as mid-December approaches, momentum begins to build, and the upward trajectory gains steam. Near the 11th trading day of the month, the upward movement starts to accelerate, leading to the expected Santa Rally.Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks With Strong Christmas Seasonality
For investors seeking to capitalize on the Santa Rally, certain stocks have a proven track record of delivering significant gains in the latter half of December. Looking back at the past 20 years of data, here are the top 10 S&P 500 stocks that have historically shown the strongest average returns between Dec. 12 and Dec. 31:Illumina, Inc. ILM has an average return of +4.94% and a median return of +5.17%. It has witnessed a maximum profit of +19.39% and a maximum loss of -10.98%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 4.27, it is a stock that has performed exceptionally well during the Christmas season.Invesco Ltd. IVZ has an average return of +4.34% and a median return of +3.04%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +23.10% and a maximum loss of -5.10%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.72, it is another stock that has shown strong Christmas seasonality.Valero Energy Corporation VLO has an average return of +3.78% and a median return of +4.37%. It has reached a maximum profit of +12.89% and a maximum loss of -8.52%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.70, it is a reliable performer during this period.Western Digital Corporation WDC has an average return of +3.73% and a median return of +3.84%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +24.23% and a maximum loss of -13.26%. With a win ratio of 70% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.75, it is a stock that investors should consider.Mohawk Industries, Inc. MHK has an average return of +3.47% and a median return of +2.19%. It has reached a maximum profit of +20.26% and a maximum loss of -4.35%. With a win ratio of 70% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.18, it is a stock with good Christmas seasonality.Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX has an average return of +3.34% and a median return of +4.60%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +25.84% and a maximum loss of -15.06%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.03, it is a stock that has performed well during the Christmas season.BlackRock, Inc. BLK has an average return of +3.32% and a median return of +3.62%. It has reached a maximum profit of +11.64% and a maximum loss of -1.69%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.49, it is a reliable stock with strong Christmas seasonality.Global Payments Inc. GPN has an average return of +3.30% and a median return of +3.35%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +12.38% and a maximum loss of -8.28%. With a win ratio of 80% and a Sharpe Ratio of 3.44, it is a stock that investors should keep an eye on.CBRE Group, Inc. CBRE has an average return of +3.20% and a median return of +3.24%. It has reached a maximum profit of +13.27% and a maximum loss of -7.11%. With a win ratio of 75% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.22, it is a stock with good Christmas seasonality.Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL has an average return of +3.14% and a median return of +1.80%. It has achieved a maximum profit of +36.95% and a maximum loss of -14.54%. With a win ratio of 55% and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.36, it is a stock that offers potential during the Christmas season.These stocks have demonstrated consistent performance during the Christmas season and could be valuable additions to an investor's portfolio. However, it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.