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Agriculture

USDA's December WASDE: Lower U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs Expectation

2024-12-10

Today, the USDA presented the highly anticipated December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report holds significant importance as it provides crucial insights into the global and U.S. agricultural markets. Let's delve into the details and explore the key findings.

Unveiling the Insights of USDA's December WASDE Report

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

In the December report, the USDA pegged 2024/2025 U.S. corn ending stocks lower compared to the previous month and also lower than the average trade expectation. This indicates a potential tightening in the corn market. On the other hand, for soybeans, the USDA held ending stocks steady, while the average trade expectation was for a reduction. Wheat ending stocks were reduced more than the average trade expectation, suggesting a shift in the wheat market dynamics.The specific figures for 2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates (Bushels) are as follows:December: Corn - 1.738 billion, Soybeans - 470 million, Wheat - 795 million.November: Corn - 1.906 billion, Soybeans - 469 million, Wheat - 814 million.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

Regarding global ending stocks, 2024/2025 global corn ending stocks were pegged lower month-over-month and also lower than the average trade expectation. However, global soybean and wheat ending stocks were pegged higher month-over-month. It's interesting to note that soybeans were not pegged as high as expected, while wheat was pegged higher than the average trade expectation.The 2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Metric Tons) are as follows:December: Corn - 296.4, Soybeans - 131.9, Wheat - 257.9.November: Corn - 303.6, Soybeans - 132.4, Wheat - 257.7.

2024/2025 U.S. Crop Production

The USDA made no changes month-over-month to U.S. corn and soybean yield and total production estimates for the 2024/2025 season. This was not a surprise as it was the last WASDE report of the year. The specific details for 2024/2025 Corn and Soybeans are as follows:For Corn: Yield - 183.1 bushels per acre, Total Production - 15.143 billion bushels.For Soybeans: Yield - 51.7 bushels per acre, Total Production - 4.461 billion bushels.

More From USDA

Corn: "This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks," said USDA in the report. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply that corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion.Soybeans: "Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged," said USDA in the report concerning the 2024/2025 soybean projections.Wheat: "This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks," said USDA in the report. Imports are raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring [wheat]. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased by 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter [wheat] and Hard Red Spring [wheat] are both raised by 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14% from last year.

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing, stated, "Today’s USDA report had elements of support for U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks, as the numbers came in lower than expectations…. The market was anticipating supportive news for corn, and had been trading that news earlier in the week with the recent rally. The question now is if the report news is friendly enough to justify additional technical buying as major overhead resistance is approaching on the March corn futures chart, near the $4.50 area. $4.50 is a brick wall on the charts."Jeremy McCann, account manager at Farmer’s Keeper, said, "We’re much closer to a 1.7 billion bushel [corn] carryout which makes sense as the cash market has been looking at basis improvements all across the country over the past month as well. World ending stocks also noted a much lower than expected carryout for corn. Once again good news for the corn market…. Overall this report confirms what we already knew. Corn certainly has room to push higher."Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Bloomberg.

The upcoming product from Sigma is generating a lot of excitement. In a wide-ranging interview with the CEO, Kazuto Yamaki, a tantalizing teaser was dropped about a "telephoto lens that has never existed before." We are left eagerly awaiting more details on this mystery lens and its release date.

Unveiling the Unprecedented with Sigma's New Lens

What Could This New Sigma Lens Be?

In a recent interview shared on Sigma's YouTube channel, the CEO's comment has set the photography community abuzz. The idea of a telephoto lens that is truly unique has captured the imagination of both professional and amateur photographers alike. Sigma has a reputation for lens innovation, and this new offering is no exception.

Looking at the company's history, they have already made significant strides in the lens market. From releasing the world's first F1.8 zoom lens to delivering superb quality lenses at a more affordable price, Sigma has proven themselves to be a leader in the industry. Now, with this new teaser, the question on everyone's mind is: what will this new telephoto lens bring to the table?

Lens Contenders and Possibilities

There is a trend in the lens market towards making second-generation lenses smaller and lighter. Sony's FE 85mm F1.4 GM II is a prime example of this, winning the Tech Radar Choice Awards in 2024. However, simply making a lens smaller and lighter may not be enough to be considered "a telephoto lens that has never existed before."

Sigma has already made history with their first-ever full-frame F1.8 zoom lens. Could the next step be a wider zoom range with F1.8 aperture? A 45-90mm F1.8 lens could be a possibility, but it would still be within the standard focal length range. Kazuto Yamaki specifically mentioned a telephoto lens, which leads us to believe it could be beyond the 70-200mm range. Perhaps a 200-400mm F3.5 lens? Such a wide aperture is usually found in pricey prime lenses.

If we were to take a more optimistic approach, a faster-than-ever telephoto prime like a 300mm F2 with a built-in 1.4x teleconverter could be in the works. Or could Sigma be aiming for their most telephoto lens ever, an 800mm F6.3? The possibilities are endless, and we can't wait to find out more.

While we don't know the exact timeline for the unveiling of this mystery lens, we will be closely following Sigma's announcements. In the meantime, the anticipation continues to build, and photographers around the world are eagerly awaiting what Sigma has in store.

In late 2021, the long-shuttered social app Phhhoto filed an antitrust lawsuit against Meta. The startup alleged that Meta violated U.S. antitrust law by copying its core features and suppressing competition. U.S. District Judge Kiyo Matsumoto in 2023 granted Meta's motion to dismiss the complaint due to time limitations. However, on appeal, the court found that the case should have been heard as these time limits should not have applied.

Implications for Phhhoto

This decision gives Phhhoto another chance to argue that Meta engaged in anti-competitive behavior, ultimately leading to the demise of its company after Meta copied its features and restricted its growth. The case raises questions about how Meta used the introduction of an algorithm feed on Instagram to suppress Phhhoto's content, resulting in a decline in user registrations and engagement while Meta's own app gained popularity.Phhhoto claims that it discovered the algorithmic manipulation when it used a different account to post a video on Instagram. The same post received more likes and views on the other account, even though Phhhoto's account had 500 times more followers. This disparity led to concerns about Meta's actions.The district court never ruled on these claims as the judge determined that the four-year statute of limitations under the Sherman Act had expired. Phhhoto also argues that Meta used other anticompetitive tactics to harm its business.For instance, before Instagram launched its algorithmic feed in March 2016, Phhhoto alleged that Meta withdrew its access to the "Find Friends" API. This API allows third-party apps like Phhhoto to tap into Meta's social graph. Additionally, Meta terminated its plans to integrate Phhhoto's content into the Facebook News Feed as originally planned. Meta also introduced its own competitive product, the looping video app Instagram Boomerang, which copied Phhhoto's technology.Image Credits: MetaPhhhoto's appeal suggested that its case should have been heard by the court as the relevant part of its antitrust claim should have been subject to "equitable tolling based on fraudulent concealment." In other words, the court should have paused the statute of limitations as Phhhoto did not discover the issues with Meta's algorithmic feed until later. The company found out in December 2018 when documents filed in a federal lawsuit in California were made public, revealing that Meta had run a program called Project Amplify that manipulated and reordered posts and content in consumers' feeds for Meta's benefit.While the appeals court is not making a final decision on the case (as it never reached the point of a ruling), it concluded that the lower court erred at "each step of the fraudulent concealment analysis." This means the court's earlier decision against Phhhoto's antitrust claim was untimely and the case should be heard.The case will now be sent back to the district court for trial.Responding to a request for comment, a Meta spokesperson said, "As we have said since the beginning, this suit is baseless and we will continue to vigorously defend ourselves."