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Bonds

US Issuers Find Green Bonds Less Attractive Over Time

2024-12-09

In the United States, the issuance of bonds intended to benefit the environment is likely to remain relatively subdued. Matt Lawton from T. Rowe Price Group Inc. points out that companies no longer gain a significant price advantage from selling such debt. The so-called 'greenium,' which measures the spread between green bonds and non-green bonds from the same issuer, now averages between 0 to 1 basis point for corporations, which isn't economically attractive. Sovereigns, on the other hand, get about 7 bps on average.

Republican-Led Backlash and Its Impact

Lawton also notes that the Republican-led backlash against do-good investing, especially after Donald Trump's election victory, may keep first-time borrowers away. Trump has expressed intentions to increase fossil-fuel production and undo green policies like the Inflation Reduction Act. This creates a challenging environment for the issuance of ESG-linked bonds in the US. It acts as a headwind for new sectors and issuers coming to the market.

Corporate ESG Bond Issuance in 2023

Corporate issuance of ESG-linked bonds this year through December 6 has reached $27.2 billion, which is the least since 2019. The Inflation Reduction Act was expected to mobilize private capital for sustainable solutions. However, if it is weakened under Trump, it will likely lead to less capital investment in sustainable initiatives and less bond financing in the short term.

Lawton expects less enthusiasm from potential first-time issuers. They face costs in developing a bond framework, getting external verification, and reporting on the use of proceeds annually. In a series of interviews ending on December 9 with Bloomberg News, he shared these insights. T. Rowe Price had $1.61 trillion of assets under management as of the end of October.

Tension between Yields and Spreads

When asked about the biggest takeaway, Lawton emphasizes the tension between yields and spreads in the market and how it affects issuance and demand. Spreads are very tight, but yields relative to history are attractive. The strong demand supporting the credit markets is conditional upon the macroeconomic backdrop. A slight economic wobble could lead to wider spreads as there is little cushion currently. Risks are skewed towards spreads widening.

Reasons for Diminishing Greenium

Regarding the diminishing greenium, Lawton is unable to provide a clear explanation. Despite the demand for green bonds not waning, the number of mandates and impact-focused opportunities in fixed income is increasing, suggesting a positive future demand picture.

Blue Bond Issuance and Its Significance

We are seeing more blue bond issuance to fund projects aimed at improving water resources and marine life. This is one of the unifying sustainability themes that connects globally. By 2030, cumulative issuance is expected to reach upwards of a hundred billion dollars. The blue economy is the seventh-largest economy in the world, and significant investment is needed to decarbonize sectors like shipping and offshore renewables. There is a large untapped funding potential that is starting to be realized.

Concerns about Corporate Greenwashing

The issue of corporate greenwashing remains a concern. Standards have improved and consolidated as the market gains a better understanding of what constitutes a credible green bond. However, it is still essential to be vigilant and aware of the risk of greenwashing.

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Since the Supreme Court's 2018 decision to overturn the Professional & Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), the landscape of gambling in the United States has undergone a significant transformation. With 38 states now legalizing sports betting and consumers increasingly allocating a portion of their paychecks to this activity, it's clear that online gambling has become a prominent force in the nation.

Unraveling the Complexities of Online Gambling in America

Section 1: The Legalization Wave

Approximately 82.2% of U.S. adults have engaged in gambling within the past 3 years, showcasing the widespread appeal of this activity. The industry's earnings have soared, reaching over $11 billion in 2023 and projected to grow to $45 billion per year by 2030. This recent boom has not only led to increased tax revenues but has also sparked a public debate about its economic and social impacts.In just a few years, online betting has become normalized at an unprecedented rate. Influencers and celebrities have played a significant role in promoting it, with DraftKings commercials and free bet offers becoming common. Even major sports networks are now presenting parlay bets before kickoff, making gambling an integral part of the sports viewing experience.

Section 2: Social and Economic Costs

While online gambling legalization has boosted state revenues, it has also led to increased problematic gambling behaviors, especially among lower-income populations. Studies have shown that a significant portion of tax revenue from sports betting is allocated to various sectors, but it doesn't necessarily lead to a significant increase in public education funding. In fact, some studies suggest that it simply redistributes line items in the budget.An analysis of over 700,000 online gamblers revealed that 96% lost money. Many gamblers exceeded the recommended spending limit of 1% of their monthly income, with over 5% spending more than 10% and over 3% spending more than 15%. This highlights the potential financial harm that gambling can cause.

Section 3: Impact on Vulnerable Students

Numerous studies have shown that gambling revenues are disproportionately drawn from low-income communities that lack access to quality education. The industry profits from compulsive bettors, and these new betting options are often unregulated, leaving many consumers ill-equipped to understand the odds.In schools, the challenge of responsible gambling has permeated, with gambling terms like "parlay" popping up in everyday teen conversations. Despite legal protections, teens are finding ways around the rules, and the problem is clearly growing. Lower-income individuals in states with legalized online betting are more likely to engage in irresponsible gambling and are at a higher risk of bankruptcy.

Section 4: An Opportunity for Education

Online sports betting is here to stay, but we can take action to address the risks. Investing in strong financial literacy programs can help students understand the odds and dangers of gambling. Individuals with higher financial literacy are less likely to engage in frequent gambling, and educational programs focusing on financial management can reduce gambling-related harms.Interestingly, a recent study found that receiving financial education at a younger age does not necessarily reduce gambling frequency. This highlights the importance of the quality and content of financial education.To date, a majority of gambling taxes have been allocated towards education. For example, Massachusetts passed a bill legalizing sports betting and estimated $35 million in annual tax revenue, while Illinois has allocated roughly 90% of gambling revenues to support K-12 public education.Conclusion:While online sports betting has generated significant tax revenue, it's crucial to address the pervasive nature of online gambling and its impact on students. Promoting responsible gambling and investing in financial education are essential steps in protecting our youth and communities. By teaching students about financial literacy and the risks of gambling, we can help them navigate this new world and avoid the pitfalls of casual gambling. With a strategic reinvestment of gambling revenues into statewide financial literacy programs, we can empower students with a brighter financial future.