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Futures

TSX gains with energy boost; Scotiabank starts bank earnings

2024-12-03

Canada's main stock index witnessed a slight upward movement on Tuesday. This was partly driven by the mining stocks, while the financials sector faced a setback as Bank of Nova Scotia failed to meet the estimates for its fourth-quarter profit. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index rose by 32.59 points, equivalent to 0.13%, reaching 25,622.73. The materials sector in Canada showed a significant jump of 1.9%, with gold prices edging higher due to the rebounding expectations of a U.S. rate cut in December. Copper prices also climbed against the backdrop of a soft dollar. [GOL/] [MET/L]Colin Cieszynski, the chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, noted that although it was the start of the bank earning season, it seemed to be more of a resource story on that day. The heavyweight financials sector, which constitutes nearly a third of the composite index's total weight, limited the overall gains by declining 0.16%. Bank of Nova Scotia, which kicked off the Canadian banks' quarterly reporting season, missed the profit estimates mainly due to higher taxes and increased expenses on compensation and technology. However, the lender reported that its credit loss provisions decreased from C$1.26 billion last year to C$1.03 billion. Cieszynski added that if other banks also showed similar improvements, it would be a very positive development.Over the past year, the top banks had to allocate more funds for bad loans as clients faced difficulties in meeting mortgage and loan payments due to high interest rates and elevated living costs. The industrials sector also experienced a decline of 0.7%.In the United States, the JOLTS report indicated that U.S. job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, surpassing the estimated gain of 7.475 million as per the economists polled by Reuters. This data sets the stage for the monthly payroll figures on Friday, which could have an impact on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting. Market participants are currently anticipating a 70.3% chance of a quarter-point cut at this month's Fed meeting.

Unraveling Canada's Stock Market Dynamics

Stock Index Movement and Its Drivers

Canada's stock market on Tuesday presented an interesting scenario. The main index showed a modest increase, with mining stocks playing a crucial role in driving this upward trend. The S&P/TSX composite index's rise of 0.13% to 25,622.73 points was a result of various factors at play. The materials sector's 1.9% jump was particularly notable, with gold and copper prices responding positively to different market conditions. This indicates the complex interplay of global economic factors and their impact on specific sectors.The performance of the financials sector, which holds a significant weight in the index, was a contrasting story. Bank of Nova Scotia's miss in fourth-quarter profit estimates had a dampening effect on the overall sector. Despite this setback, the lender's improvement in credit loss provisions provided some hope for the future. This shows how individual bank performances can influence the broader market sentiment.

Impact of U.S. Economic Data on Canada

The JOLTS report from the United States had implications for Canada's stock market. The rise in U.S. job openings to 7.744 million in October was higher than expected, setting the stage for the monthly payroll figures on Friday. This data is likely to have an impact on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting. Market participants are closely watching these developments as they could influence the direction of global interest rates and, consequently, Canada's stock market.The higher job openings suggest a certain level of economic activity in the U.S., which may have both positive and negative implications for Canada. On one hand, it could indicate a growing economy that could potentially boost demand for Canadian goods and services. On the other hand, it could also lead to increased competition and potential challenges for Canadian businesses.

Sector-Specific Insights and Challenges

The materials sector's performance highlights the importance of commodity prices in driving stock market movements. Gold's rise against the backdrop of expected U.S. rate cuts and copper's climb against a soft dollar demonstrate how these commodities can act as barometers of market sentiment. However, the industrials sector's decline of 0.7% shows that not all sectors are benefiting equally from the current market conditions.For the financials sector, Bank of Nova Scotia's experience serves as a lesson for other banks. The challenges faced by this major lender in meeting profit estimates due to higher taxes and expenses highlight the need for cost management and strategic decision-making in a challenging economic environment. It also emphasizes the importance of credit risk management in ensuring the stability of the financial system.Overall, Canada's stock market is a complex ecosystem where various sectors and global events interact. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and market participants to make informed decisions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major indexes witnessed a mixed trading trend on Tuesday as Wall Street responded to the morning's employment data. Tesla (TSLA), a prominent player in the market, faced early losses after a Delaware judge rejected its 2018 pay package. This event had a significant impact on the stock's performance.

Early Market Movements and Key Indicators

After the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.2%, while the S&P 500 saw a slight decline of 0.1%. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite managed to gain 0.1% in morning trades. The 10-year Treasury yield also ticked lower to 4.18%, and oil prices climbed, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading around $69.20 per barrel. Among exchange traded funds, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rose 0.1%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down modestly after the open.

Tesla's Setback

Tesla skidded 1% on Tuesday following a late Monday decision by Delaware Judge Kathaleen McCormick. The judge stuck with her January decision that Tesla's board was overly influenced by Elon Musk when awarding the original pay deal in 2018. At that time, the pay deal was worth approximately $56 billion. This setback had a direct impact on Tesla's stock price and market sentiment.

Economic Data and Job Openings

On the economic front, the U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS report) showed job openings at a rate of 7.744 million. The report was expected to show job openings at a 7.49 million rate in October, slightly higher than the previous month's 7.443 million. This data provides insights into the labor market and its potential impact on the stock market.

Stock Market Movers and Earnings

Key earnings movers on Tuesday morning included Credo (CRDO) and Zscaler (ZS). Credo soared 36%, while Zscaler stock plunged more than 5% in early trading. Elsewhere, AT&T (T) jumped 3.5% after the company announced its expectations of free cash flow to be more than $18 billion in 2027. Shares closed Monday in the buy range above a 22.34 flat-base entry.

Stock Market Leaders and Notable Moves

Among the best companies to watch on the stock market today are Embraer (ERJ), Cloudflare (NET), TJX (TJX), and Tradeweb Markets (TW). Dow Jones components making notable moves were Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW). Apple featured in the Stocks Near A Buy Zone column. There was one new stock on IBD MarketSurge's "Breaking Out Today" list Friday, namely Apple. To find additional stock ideas, one can check IBD Stock Lists like IBD 50, Big Cap 20, and Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Industry Group and IPOs

This industry group and 4 IPOs have polished 20 "perfect" gems. Dow Jones leader Sherwin-Williams is breaking out past a 392.57 buy point in a flat base, with shares adding 0.1% on Tuesday. Outside the Dow Jones index, Cloudflare has broken out in recent weeks, topping a 99.17 buy point in a cup with handle. The 5% buy zone runs up to 104.13, but shares are just out of buy range following Monday's rally. Embraer is in buy range above an alternative entry at 39.46 and is a recent IBD Stock Of The Day, with shares down 0.6% early Tuesday. Retailer TJX is above a 121.13 flat-base entry following strong gains, and its stock inched up 0.2% in early Tuesday trading. Finally, Tradeweb closed Monday just below a 136.13 entry in a flat base, but its stock gained 0.6% in morning action on Tuesday.

Magnificent Seven Stocks and Their Movements

Among Magnificent Seven stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL) edged higher after the opening bell. Shares have plunged below their 50-day line in recent weeks but are now rebounding. Meta Platforms (META) is rapidly approaching a flat base's 602.95 buy point, with shares ticking up 0.5% on Tuesday. Among Dow Jones components in the Magnificent Seven, Amazon stock rallied sharply in recent sessions, decisively retaking a 201.20 buy point and adding 0.5% in early trading on Tuesday. Shares of Apple are breaking out above a flat base's 237.49 entry, with the stock up 0.5% on Tuesday morning. Microsoft shares gained 0.2% on Tuesday morning, reclaimed its 50-day line, a key level to watch during recent gains. Nvidia stock rose 0.5% on Tuesday, with the artificial intelligence titan looking to rebound following a sharp pullback over the last few trading sessions. Shares are bouncing from their 10-week moving average line, an important area to watch, which places Nvidia stock in a new buy area.Be sure to follow Scott Lehtonen on X at @IBD_SLehtonen for more on growth stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the stock market today.

Feeder cattle futures opened higher on Monday, reaching new highs before reversing and falling back. Some of the selling could be attributed to the market being overbought. Additionally, news of Cargill cutting 5% of its workforce due to shrinking profits also played a role. Some of these cuts will be in the meat processing division, which has pressured margins. However, this may not have a significant impact on overall beef processing in the nation but was enough to trigger some selling as traders reacted to the news. Despite this, the bullish aspect of the cattle herd and tight supplies remains unchanged. Boxed beef prices were higher, with choice up $2.49 and select up $2.70, indicating strong consumer demand. Traders are cautious though, given the amount of cattle purchased for deferred delivery last week. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders adding 6,497 long futures positions in live cattle, bringing their net-long total to 118,350 contracts. They also increased their net-long positions in feeder cattle by 3,036 contracts to a net-long position of 15,467 contracts.

Market Reactions and Opportunities

The market's reaction to the news of Cargill's job cuts in the meat processing division might have been a short-term knee-jerk response rather than a long-term impact. Feeder cattle futures were overbought, and Monday's weakness could have triggered a liquidation phase. However, it's important to note that the cattle market was overbought and needed to correct. This weakness could potentially be seen as a buying opportunity as cattle numbers remain tight. Packers may not be as aggressive this week as they were able to purchase cattle for deferred delivery last week. They might continue to reduce the slaughter pace to improve margins.Hog futures continue to make new contract highs as traders trade the trend. Hog supplies do not seem as plentiful as reported earlier this year. Hog futures again find themselves at a record net-long position. Any bearish indication might trigger substantial selling. Packers are maintaining a strong slaughter pace to keep up with demand and improve packer margins. They have been able to purchase sufficient hogs for increased processing speed without difficulty, which may limit what they will pay for hogs.For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.Hog Futures: Strong Buying and Market OutlookHog futures witnessed strong buying interest on Monday, reversing the losses from Friday and pushing June through October to new contract highs. Both June and July closed above $102, indicating that traders remain bullish on the market as we move into the end of the year and through 2025. Packers were aggressive as they needed to meet demand and continue to maintain a strong slaughter pace. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.18, with greater packer interest expected on Tuesday. Cutouts showed strong gains, with values up $2.35. December is generally a strong month for demand, and this year may be no exception. Hog numbers also seem to be tighter than reported earlier. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders increasing their net-long position by 7,074 contracts to a total of 130,169 futures contracts and a record net-long position.The hog market shows promising signs with strong buying and continued upward momentum. Traders are optimistic about the future, and the tight supply situation is likely to support prices. Packers' efforts to meet demand and maintain a high slaughter pace are crucial factors in the market's stability. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these trends continue to unfold and what impact they will have on the overall livestock industry.For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.