Futures
Stock Futures Near Flatline as Investors Await Jobs Report
2024-12-05
Stock futures on Thursday night were hovering near the flatline as investors anxiously awaited crucial payrolls data. This awaited information holds significant importance as it is expected to provide a clearer understanding of the domestic labor market's health and influence the Federal Reserve's rate decision at its December 17-18 policy meeting.

Anticipated Market Impact

With market expectations for a solid rebound in payrolls, an even stronger print above expectations could potentially force the Fed to reevaluate the pace of rate cutting next year. As stated by Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, this data will play a crucial role in shaping the future course of monetary policy.The continued strength of the U.S. economy has led Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize that policymakers do not need to be in a hurry to lower rates. This stance further highlights the significance of the upcoming payrolls data in determining the trajectory of interest rates.Stock markets closed lower on Thursday, retreating from the records set in the previous session. Week to date, the S&P 500 has seen a 0.7% increase, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 2.5%. The 30-stock Dow, however, is down 0.3% during the same period.

Investors' Dilemma

Investors have a mixed outlook on Friday's jobs report, which is one of the remaining major events for the market to digest before the Federal Reserve's meeting. John Flood, head of Americas equities sales trading for Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, expects markets to rally on a softer report, suggesting a headline number in the 150,000 to 200,000 range is favorable for stocks. However, Goldman's official forecast reflects a 235,000 job increase in nonfarm payrolls, and Dow Jones has a consensus estimate of 214,000 jobs being added last month.This uncertainty among investors showcases the critical nature of the payrolls data and its potential to sway market sentiment.

Companies Making Big Moves

After Thursday's close, several companies made significant moves. Ulta Beauty, the beauty retailer, jumped 12% after posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the fiscal third quarter. It reported earnings of $5.14 per share on revenue of $2.53 billion, surpassing analysts' forecasts of $4.54 per share and $2.50 billion. The company also raised its full-year guidance.GitLab, the developer tools software maker, saw a 6% increase after posting a substantial earnings beat in the third quarter. It reported adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $196 million, exceeding the LSEG consensus estimate of 16 cents per share on revenue of $188 million. Additionally, the company announced a new CEO effective Thursday.Lululemon Athletica, the athletic apparel maker, also posted a quarterly beat, sending its stock more than 10% higher. It reported $2.87 per share in earnings on $2.40 billion in revenue, exceeding analysts' forecast of $2.69 per share on $2.36 billion in revenue.These companies' performances highlight the impact that strong quarterly results can have on their stock prices and the broader market.

Futures Open with Little Change

Shortly after 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, stock futures were showing little change. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 20 points, or nearly 0.1%. S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed about 0.1%. This indicates that investors are waiting with bated breath for the Friday labor data release to provide more clarity on market trends.In conclusion, the upcoming payrolls data is set to be a key determinant of market movements and the future direction of monetary policy. Investors will be closely watching for any indications that could impact their investment decisions.
First Quarter Class III Futures See a Slight Uptick
2024-12-05
Whey, often overshadowed, has emerged as the main character in the market this week. Despite spot prices remaining steady today, futures have soared, with the March, April, and July contracts reaching their limit. First quarter futures have seen a significant increase, averaging $0.7110 per hundredweight, a nearly four-cent hike from yesterday. Reports consistently highlight tight whey supplies as a crucial supportive factor. From a producer's viewpoint, the rise in dry whey is positively influencing Class III futures, as every penny movement in whey translates to six cents in Class III. Today, first quarter Class III futures inched slightly higher to $19.12 per hundredweight, despite a decline in cheese values.

Today's Market Highlights

After two days of gains, spot cheddar prices took a turn, with blocks settling at $1.6650 per pound, a decrease of 3.5 cents. Barrels also experienced a dip, settling at $1.6425 per pound, down 2.5 cents. A total of three lots of blocks and two loads of barrels were traded. The only other notable movement was in spot NDM, which climbed to $1.3825 per pound, adding $0.0125. Eight lots were exchanged.US cheese exports remained strong in October, reaching 88.8 million pounds, a 12% year-over-year increase. A significant volume of 38 million pounds was shipped to Mexico, 27% more than the same period last year. However, exports of NDM+SMP dipped to 136.5 million pounds, 4% lower than the previous year. Butter exports totaled 5 million pounds, a 22% increase compared to prior-year levels. But imports showed a substantial growth, reaching 19 million pounds, a 79% year-over-year increase.Dairy cow slaughter during the week ending November 23 reached 51,200 head, a 22.5% increase year-over-year. Although this is an improvement from the weak 2023 performance, the activity still remains well below the five-year average.Your Next Read: Agriculture Should Expect a Return to Tough Trade Tactics in Trump's Next Term

Whey's Impact on Futures

The surge in whey futures is a significant development in the market. As mentioned earlier, the March, April, and July contracts have moved limit up, indicating a strong upward trend. This increase is not only driven by tight supplies but also has implications for other dairy sectors. For example, the rise in whey is lending a bullish hand to Class III futures, creating a ripple effect throughout the dairy market. Producers are closely monitoring these movements as they have a direct impact on their bottom line.

Cheese and NDM Market Trends

The reversal in spot cheddar prices after two days of gains is a notable event. The decline in block and barrel prices shows the volatility in the cheese market. Meanwhile, the increase in spot NDM prices indicates a different trend within the dairy market. These fluctuations highlight the complexity and interdependence of different dairy products. Understanding these trends is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions.

Dairy Cow Slaughter and Market Outlook

The increase in dairy cow slaughter is a significant factor to consider. While the year-over-year growth is positive, it still lags behind the five-year average. This suggests that there may be underlying issues in the dairy industry that need to be addressed. The weak 2023 performance further emphasizes the need for a comprehensive analysis of the market. Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and what impact they will have on the dairy market.
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US Stock Futures Unchanged on Re-Opening with Risk Warnings
2024-12-05
Foreign exchange trading is a complex and risky arena that demands careful consideration. It is essential for investors to be well-informed and make decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the risks involved. In this article, we will explore the various aspects of foreign exchange trading and the importance of being cautious.

Navigating the Risks of Foreign Exchange Trading

High Risk Warning

Foreign exchange trading indeed carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. The use of leverage amplifies this risk, exposing traders to potential losses that could exceed their initial investment. Before venturing into foreign exchange trading, it is crucial to carefully assess one's investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. One could lose a significant portion or even all of their initial investment. Therefore, it is advisable to only invest money that one can afford to lose. Educating oneself about the risks associated with foreign exchange trading is of utmost importance. Seeking advice from an independent financial or tax advisor can provide valuable insights and help in making informed decisions.

Advisory Warning

FOREXLIVE is not an investment advisor; rather, it provides references and links to selected news, blogs, and other sources of economic and market information. This is done for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects. It does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of these blogs or other information sources. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in these sources in the context of their individual analysis and decision-making. It is important to note that none of these blogs or other sources of information constitutes a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and FOREXLIVE specifically emphasizes the need for clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers, and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an "as-is" basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice.

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