Stocks
The 2025 Buy: Nvidia vs. Amazon in Dow Growth Stocks
2024-12-08
The storied Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI -0.28%) stands as one of the most ancient and esteemed stock market indexes. Comprising 30 industry-leading blue chip stocks representing their respective sectors, it has witnessed significant metamorphoses over the past five years. Two recent changes this year saw Amazon (AMZN 2.94%) replace Walgreens Boots Alliance in February and Nvidia (NVDA -1.81%) replace Intel in November. These additions have quickly demonstrated their worth in modernizing the Dow, with both components outperforming the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.25%) and Dow indexes year to date. However, investors often focus more on a company's future prospects than its past achievements.
Why Nvidia Outshines Amazon in 2025
Amazon and Nvidia: A Symbiotic Relationship
Before delving deeper, it's crucial to note that Amazon's cloud computing arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is a significant client of Nvidia. This creates a scenario where both companies can thrive and achieve market-beating gains. On December 3rd, Nvidia announced that its latest technology, including the Blackwell architecture for generative artificial intelligence (AI), would be available on AWS. A new computing platform through AWS Marketplace Private Offers will enable enterprises to build AI models with Nvidia's expert support. AWS has also developed liquid-to-chip cooling across its data centers, offering air and liquid-cooling capabilities for powerful AI supercomputer systems like the Nvidia GB200 NVL72. Nvidia is the undisputed leader in chips for hyperscalers, and AWS is the leading hyperscaler, commanding a significant market share. According to a November 1 report by Synergy Research Group, AWS holds a 31% market share in the cloud market compared to 20% for Microsoft and 13% for Google. However, AWS doesn't have the same dominance in cloud as Nvidia does in data center chips.The Superior Business Model of Nvidia
Throughout its history, Amazon has demonstrated remarkable flexibility, branching into various end markets and weathering economic uncertainties. The company's network effects, leading cloud position, growing e-commerce business, and combination of diversification and disruption make it a compelling investment. AWS' operating income accounted for 62% of Amazon's total operating income in the nine months ending September 30, 2024. Compared to the same period last year, AWS revenue increased by $12.22 billion, while operating expenses only rose by $479 million. This led to significant operating income growth. However, without AWS, Amazon's growth would be much slower. AWS has expanded Amazon beyond e-commerce and made it a more robust business. In contrast, Nvidia's data center business has been a game-changer. In its recent third-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended October 27), Nvidia reported $30.77 billion in revenue, with $27.64 billion from compute and $3.13 billion from networking. The compute and networking segment generated an operating income of $22.081 billion, resulting in an astonishingly high operating margin of 71.8%. For comparison, Amazon's overall operating income in the same quarter was $17.41 billion, and AWS' margins are not as high as Nvidia's. Nvidia's gaming and AI PC, professional visualization, and automotive and robotics segments combined for $4.22 billion in revenue, with the graphics segment earning $1.502 billion in operating income. Five years ago, Nvidia's data center business was smaller than its graphics segment. Today, data center revenue makes up over 85% of Nvidia's total revenue and over 90% of its operating income. In this quarter, Nvidia stated that cloud service providers accounted for around 50% of its data center revenue, while the rest came from consumer internet and enterprise companies. These customers are among the highest quality in the world and have the financial capacity to invest through market cycles. Nvidia has transitioned from a chip company for graphics to a dominant force in data centers. In contrast, Amazon still engages in multiple activities, but AWS is its best-performing segment. Nvidia has better margins, more growth potential, a more commanding market share, and is a more focused investment thesis on data center growth compared to Amazon, which spans multiple industries and is more complex.Nvidia's Valuation: A Fair Assessment
Nvidia's main risks include a slowdown in AI capital spending or increased competition eroding margins. However, so far, these have not materialized. Nvidia has been an earnings-driven story, and earnings growth has outpaced the stock price.NVDA data by YChartsEventually, Nvidia's growth is likely to slow down. But until then, it's difficult to label it as a bubble as the business is generating real bottom-line results. This is not a company with future potential; it is delivering remarkable results right now. Due to its earnings-driven nature, Nvidia's valuation remains reasonable. It has a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and forward P/E ratio than Amazon. But as shown in the chart, if Nvidia continues to grow its earnings at a faster pace, the valuation gap between the two companies could narrow.NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YChartsInvesting in Nvidia: A Long-Term Perspective
Nvidia and Amazon are excellent companies that will benefit from increased AI spending. However, competition or a cyclical slowdown could quickly make both companies appear more expensive, leading to a significant sell-off. When investing in industry-leading growth stocks at all-time highs, it's essential to understand that the factors driving the record highs can also lead to a sell-off. Wall Street is quick to downgrade a stock based solely on short-term growth prospects. But individual investors can focus on the long-term investment thesis instead of getting caught up in the noise. Investors interested in Nvidia should continue to monitor its technological advancements and ability to monetize them. Currently, Nvidia is out-innovating its competitors and can still command high prices for its products. Moreover, its customers are performing well and can afford to pay Nvidia's prices. Nvidia is at the top of its game, and there is no concrete reason to believe it will change. But if the cycle turns, signs will emerge from Nvidia's top customers like AWS and Meta Platforms. The stock price is driven by earnings growth, which is expected to continue next year. In conclusion, Nvidia has a simpler and more effective business model than Amazon and superior growth, making it a better investment choice at present.