Sandip Sabharwal from asksandipsabharwal.com presents an interesting outlook. He believes that 2025 should be a reasonably good year overall. Currently, the consensus trade is long on the dollar and US equities, but the overweights are excessive. This typically leads to a reverse play, and emerging markets and currencies may perform better.

Auto Sector Insights

In the auto sector, among two-wheelers, TVS has outperformed expectations while Hero MotoCorp has not done as well. Maruti's numbers seem to be quite good as they corrected inventory delays and are back to normal. This shows positive trends from TVS and Maruti.

TVS's Success

TVS has shown remarkable performance in the two-wheeler segment. Its strategies and product offerings have resonated with consumers, leading to better-than-expected sales. The company has likely focused on innovation and meeting customer demands, which has given it a competitive edge. For instance, they might have introduced new models with advanced features or improved after-sales service. This has not only attracted new customers but also retained existing ones, resulting in increased market share.

Maruti's Resilience

Maruti's ability to correct inventory delays and return to normal operations is a significant achievement. Their management team's proactive approach in addressing issues has paid off. They have likely optimized their production and supply chain processes to ensure a smooth flow of vehicles. This has allowed them to meet customer demands promptly and gain a competitive advantage. Moreover, their focus on premium segments has paid dividends, with higher premium segments showing better growth. This indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards more premium products, and Maruti has been able to capitalize on this trend.

GDP and Consumption Analysis

GDP data is backward-looking as company reports have already come in. The second-quarter results were disappointing, reflecting a growth slowdown. RBI's high growth forecast seemed improbable. However, the second half is expected to be better due to festive and marriage season demand, as well as better agri product pricing. Urban consumption may remain stressed due to rising inflation and stagnant incomes. But overall, the second half is likely to be better than the first half. Monetary and fiscal policies are not very supportive of growth at this stage, and it remains to be seen if the economy can break out of the 6.5-7% growth rate.

HUL's Growth Strategy

HUL is aiming to enter high growth areas such as premium face care and beauty care. They recognize the need to accelerate growth in these areas to sustain long-term growth. To achieve this, they need to focus on innovation and differentiation. For example, they might invest in research and development to develop new products or enhance existing ones. They also need to improve their marketing and distribution strategies to reach a wider customer base. This shift in strategy shows HUL's awareness of the competitive landscape and their determination to stay ahead.

HDFC Bank's Cycle

HDFC Bank has gone through a cycle of merger excesses, balance sheet contraction, and now growth. Once they stabilize their credit deposit ratio, they can focus on growth. Asset quality remains strong, and they are benefiting from other banks facing NPA issues. This has led to a flight towards quality, and HDFC Bank is in a favorable position. However, whether it will outperform other banks or NBFCs depends on the monetary policy stance. An easing monetary policy is typically more beneficial for smaller financers, and it remains to be seen how this will impact HDFC Bank's performance.

Auto Sales in November

November dispatches post the festive season show mixed results. October dispatches are typically sold during the festive season. TVS has done better than expected, while Hero MotoCorp has performed less well due to its inventory management issues. Maruti's numbers are good, with a 10-11% growth in higher premium segments. This indicates that different players in the auto sector are facing varying challenges and opportunities.