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Currencies

Russian Rouble's Plunge: Beyond 110 to the US Dollar

2024-11-27

The Russian rouble has witnessed a significant drop, reaching its lowest level in over 32 months. This decline comes against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict and the imposition of new US sanctions. As reported by the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, the currency fell beyond 110 to the US dollar on Wednesday, a milestone not seen since March 16, 2022, which was three weeks after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, the rouble also broke through the 15 mark against China's yuan, marking its lowest level since March 2022.

Impact on the Stock Market

The fall of Russia's currency has been compounded by a more than 20 percent decline in its stock market this year. Investors have been moving their savings from stocks to deposits, reflecting their concerns about the economic outlook. Brokerage analysts BCS have noted that "the market is awaiting the financial authorities' reaction for the rouble's devaluation," adding that forex purchases "resembled panic in an environment of uncertainty."

This shift in investor sentiment has had a ripple effect on the overall financial landscape of Russia, raising questions about the stability and future prospects of the economy.

Authorities' Possible Measures

Analyst Sofya Donets from T-Bank has suggested that the authorities could take measures such as "increasing foreign currency sales by the central bank through adjustments to the parameters of operations under the budget rule and additional capital controls." These measures are seen as potential ways to stabilize the rouble and address the challenges posed by the currency's depreciation.

The potential actions by the financial authorities are closely watched as they could have a significant impact on the market and the economy as a whole.

Future Projections

Analysts have predicted that the rouble could hit 115 to 129 to the dollar by the end of 2024. This outlook adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Russian currency and highlights the need for effective measures to manage the situation.

While a weak rouble may make Russia's exports cheaper, it also means that Russians will have to pay more for imported goods, potentially exacerbating already high inflation in the country.

Sanctions and Foreign Trade Payments

The new sanctions on Russia's financial sector have disrupted foreign trade payments, particularly for oil and gas. This has created a physical shortage of currency in the Russian market, further contributing to the rouble's slide. Most major Russian banks are under US sanctions and cannot conduct bank transactions in dollars, leaving them with limited options to trade foreign currency. The only remaining option is to import large quantities of dollars in cash.

This situation poses significant challenges for Russia's economy and highlights the need for alternative solutions to ensure the smooth flow of international trade.

Former top Japanese currency diplomat Masato Kanda has been bestowed with the significant role of becoming the next president of the Asian Development Bank. This decision was announced on Thursday by the Manila-based international lender. Kanda, currently 59 years old and a special adviser to Japan's prime minister, is set to take office on February 24, 2025, succeeding another former senior official from Japan's Finance Ministry, Masatsugu Asakawa.

Japan's Influence in the Asian Development Bank Continues

Background and Significance

Japan holds a leading shareholding in the ADB along with the United States. Since its establishment in 1966, Japan has consistently supplied the bank's chief. The selection of Masato Kanda is a continuation of this trend and holds great importance in the global financial landscape. Kanda's extensive experience in international finance and proven leadership in multilateral settings are expected to play a crucial role in navigating the complex global economic challenges that the ADB faces.

As vice finance minister for international affairs, Kanda was actively involved in significant market interventions by Japan earlier this year. These interventions were aimed at curbing the sharp decline of the yen against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. His efforts during this period demonstrated his expertise and ability to make impactful decisions in the financial arena. After serving in this position for three years, he left in July.

His appointment as the ADB president is seen as a recognition of his capabilities and a testament to Japan's continued influence in the regional and global financial sectors. It is expected that under his leadership, the ADB will continue to play a vital role in promoting economic development and cooperation in Asia and beyond.

Leadership Qualities and Experience

Kanda's extensive background in international finance provides him with a unique perspective and a wealth of knowledge. His experience in dealing with complex financial issues and his ability to navigate through different economic environments have been honed over the years. This makes him well-suited to lead the ADB in its mission to support economic growth and development in the Asia-Pacific region.

During his tenure as a special adviser to the prime minister, he has been closely involved in formulating and implementing Japan's economic policies. This has given him a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the region and the world. His leadership skills and ability to work with different stakeholders will be crucial in driving the ADB's initiatives forward.

Moreover, his previous experience in the Finance Ministry has equipped him with the necessary skills and expertise to manage the financial resources of the ADB effectively. He will be responsible for making strategic decisions that will impact the bank's operations and its ability to fulfill its mandate.

Impact on the Asian Development Bank

The appointment of Masato Kanda as the ADB president is expected to have a significant impact on the institution. His leadership is likely to bring new perspectives and ideas to the table, which will help the ADB adapt to the changing global economic landscape.

Under his leadership, the ADB is expected to focus on key areas such as infrastructure development, poverty reduction, and sustainable development. His experience in these areas will enable the bank to provide more targeted and effective support to its member countries.

Furthermore, his leadership will also enhance the ADB's reputation and credibility in the international financial community. His ability to build strong partnerships and collaborate with other international organizations will help the bank expand its reach and influence.

Russia's Central Bank has taken a significant step by announcing the suspension of buying foreign currency on the domestic market for the rest of 2024. This decision comes as the ruble continues to face challenges and slide to its lowest levels since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The move aims to reduce volatility in the financial markets and stabilize the situation.

"Russia's Central Bank's Stance on Foreign Currency and Its Impact"

Reasons for the Suspension

The decision to halt foreign currency purchases from Thursday until December 31 is a strategic one. As stated by the Russian regulator, it seeks to address the issue of volatility in the financial markets. By pausing these purchases, the Central Bank hopes to create a more stable environment for the ruble.This is not the first time such a measure has been taken. Previously, the Bank suspended planned foreign currency purchases from August 10, 2023, until December 31, 2023, due to the added pressure on the falling ruble at that time. The current suspension is an extension of this policy in light of the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian currency.

Impact on the Ruble

This year's suspension comes at a time when the ruble has been trading at its lowest levels in more than 32 months. It reached as low as 113 to the dollar for the first time since March 2022. While Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that a weaker ruble benefits Russian exports, it also fuels inflation. Reuters reports that the ruble's four-month fall could add 1.5 percentage points to the current inflation rate of 8.5%.The Central Bank has set the ruble's official exchange rate at 108.01 to the dollar and 113.09 to the euro for Thursday. This indicates the bank's efforts to maintain some level of control over the currency's value.

Other Measures Taken

In addition to the suspension of foreign currency purchases, the Central Bank will continue selling foreign currency through its sovereign wealth fund. It plans to sell the equivalent of 8.4 billion rubles per day in the second half of 2024. This shows that the bank is taking a multi-faceted approach to manage the situation and support the ruble.Overall, Russia's Central Bank's decision on foreign currency purchases is a complex one that aims to balance the needs of the economy and the stability of the financial markets. It remains to be seen how these measures will play out in the coming months and what impact they will have on the Russian economy.