Futures
The Impact of Scott Bessent's Appointment on Global Markets
2024-11-25
President-elect Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury secretary has sent ripples through global financial markets. On Monday, bond markets showed enthusiasm as they anticipated Bessent's ability to manage U.S. debt. This, in turn, led to falling yields, which pulled down the dollar and lifted U.S. stock futures close to record highs.
Market Reactions and Futures Movements
S&P 500 futures were up by 0.5%, while Dow and Nasdaq futures gained 0.6%. Even European futures, which had been under pressure, rose by 0.7%, and the euro, which had hit a two-year low on Friday, bounced back by 0.5%. Italian lender UniCredit's $10.6 billion all-scrip bid for Banco BPM put those stocks in the spotlight at the open in Milan.Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields decreased by more than 5 basis points to 4.355%, and the dollar weakened against the yen, sterling, and Antipodean currencies. Strategist Stephen Spratt from Societe Generale noted that the market views Bessent as a "safe hands" candidate, as the risk of a more unorthodox pick was priced out of markets. Bessent has also mentioned the importance of restraining U.S. borrowing.In Asia's equity markets, Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.7%, while rises in Sydney and Seoul offset selling in Hong Kong and China, lifting MSCI's broadest index of Asia shares outside Japan by about 0.7%.President-elect Trump's Treasury Secretary Appointment
President-elect Trump's appointment of a Treasury secretary has been a closely watched event in bond markets. Expectations of tax cuts, along with tariffs and an immigration crackdown, have fueled fears of inflation and big deficits. Bessent told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Sunday that both tax and spending cuts are priorities. He also told CNBC earlier in November, before his appointment as Treasury secretary, that he would recommend "tariffs be layered in gradually." However, his appointment only gave a short-lived boost to China's yuan.The currency last traded flat at 7.2445 to the dollar, while the stock market in Hong Kong saw heavy selling across e-commerce stocks. The Hang Seng fell 0.4%, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.6%.Week Ahead and Economic Data
The week ahead is likely to be influenced by Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Many traders are likely to take a long weekend. On Wednesday, October PCE and jobless figures will be published, along with the latest GDP estimate. Federal Reserve minutes are due on Tuesday.Market pricing for a Fed cut next month, which had eased in recent weeks, remained steady in Asia. There were about even chances of a hold or a 25 basis point cut. Expectations of a deep cut in New Zealand are gathering steam, with a 50 basis point cut for Wednesday fully priced and about a 1/3 chance of a 75 bp cut.New Zealand's stock market has seen its best two-day rally since June, gaining 3.2% on Thursday's close. The currency touched a one-year low of $0.5917 on Friday and traded a bit stronger at $0.5850 on Monday.At $1.0457, the euro has recovered from last week's lows, but there is still no sign of relief. The single currency took a hit on Friday as European manufacturing surveys showed broad weakness, and the central bank's chief economist did little to dispel expectations for extra rate cuts in an interview with France's Les Echos. "Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too long," said European Central Bank's Philip Lane.Bitcoin ticked up slightly from Sunday to $98,334. On Friday, it reached a record peak of $99,830 amid expectations of a more friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump. The token is up about 45% since Trump's sweeping election victory on Nov. 5, when voters also elected a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers to Congress.