In the third quarter, all HBGI-tracked geographies witnessed growth in single-family starts. Permit data, which has been consistently higher than last year, is driving this upward trend. Among the HBGI geographies, small metro core counties registered the highest growth of 16.3% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis. On the other hand, micro counties had the lowest growth at 6.5%. This shows the varying dynamics within different geographical areas.
Furthermore, new analysis reveals that counties with the highest population density have seen a decline in their market share for single-family construction. In 2018's first quarter, these high-density counties constituted nearly 40% of single-family construction on a four-quarter moving average basis. However, since then, their share has fallen to 36%. This trend predates the COVID pandemic and has continued even after it.
In the multifamily sector, the HBGI year-over-year growth showed declines in the third quarter for all but one geography. Small metro outlying counties witnessed a 2.3% increase on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis, with more than 9,000 permits authorized. However, large metro suburban counties saw the largest decline of 19.3% during the same period. Despite high-density areas still making up a majority of the multifamily market (67.4% in 2018's first quarter and now 63.2%), there has been a significant shift during the pandemic, with a 3.8 percentage point drop over a two-year period.
Currently, with over 800,000 multifamily units under construction and higher interest rates, multifamily construction remains relatively subdued compared to last year. The HBGI data for the third quarter of 2024, along with an interactive HBGI map, can be accessed at http://nahb.org/hbgi.
When we last took a look at Test Track construction, the attraction's sign had been removed, leaving the ground directly in front largely exposed. However, since then, significant changes have occurred. The dirt has been cleaned up, and now scaffolding stands in front of the main entrance. This scaffolding will serve as a crucial framework for the installation of the new overhang.
Six new v-shaped support structures have been carefully placed on concrete blocks. These sturdy supports will play a vital role in holding up the new overhang, which will gracefully curve out from below the exterior track. Dark tarps hang over parts of the scaffolding, adding an air of mystery to the ongoing work.
Not only can these supports be seen from a distance, but they also reach several feet above the construction walls. Currently, they are just bare steel, but they will soon be covered in weather-proof sheathing and paneling to ensure their durability and longevity.
These supports are a testament to the meticulous planning and execution of the construction team. They will provide the necessary stability and support for the new overhang, enhancing the overall look and feel of the Test Track entrance.
Despite the initial concept art showing a certain design, it's important to note that Test Track will revert to its General Motors sponsorship instead of Chevrolet. The attraction is scheduled to reopen in late summer 2025 after over a year of construction. The new story will draw inspiration from World of Motion, the ride it replaced in 1999, and celebrate the history of transportation advancements.
The queue will feature six exhibits dedicated to the vehicles and people who have helped push transportation advancements. This addition will provide visitors with a deeper understanding and appreciation of the history behind the attraction.
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