President-elect Donald Trump made no secret during his campaigning that he doesn't think the U.S. should take an aggressive stance on climate change. From leading chants of "drill, baby, drill" to frequently criticizing everything from wind turbines to electric vehicles, he appears poised to cast a shadow over the climate tech sector for the next four years. But will he really have such a detrimental impact?

Uncertainty Looms as Trump's Climate Tech Policies Take Shape

Trump's Campaign Stances and Their Implications

During his campaign, Trump's positions on climate change and related technologies were clearly evident. His calls for "drill, baby, drill" and criticism of renewable energy sources like wind turbines and electric vehicles seemed to suggest a less-than-supportive attitude towards the climate tech sector. This has led many to worry about the future of these industries.However, as with many of his positions, it's difficult to pinpoint his exact stance. Some of his proposed policies might actually have both positive and negative effects on climate tech. For example, deregulation and increased oil and gas production could potentially lead to more natural gas and oil, which in turn could benefit geothermal and geologic hydrogen technologies.

Investor Optimism Amidst Uncertainty

Despite the concerns, some climate tech investors remain cautiously optimistic. Leonardo Banchik, investment director at Voyager Ventures, believes that policy changes being considered by the second Trump administration won't be universally detrimental to climate tech. He points out that a lot of the climate tech wave started during the Trump administration and that these technologies will continue to come down the cost curve regardless of which administration is in power.Sophie Bakalar, a partner at Collab Fund, also shares this optimism. She believes that this second Trump administration could inspire more entrepreneurs to start building in the sector. She emphasizes that climate change is a long-term trend and that these technologies will continue to be important regardless of short-term political changes.

Lessons from the Clean Tech Cycle

Investors' optimism also stems from lessons learned from the clean tech cycle that went bust over a decade ago. Many companies grew too quickly during that time, building massive factories and supply chains before demand had fully materialized. They also became overly dependent on government subsidies.Today, investors are more cautious and are only investing in companies that provide a concrete value to their customers and are independent from climate-related factors. This approach helps to ensure the long-term viability of these companies.

Companies at Risk and Those That Could Benefit

While some companies will face challenges, there are also sectors that could get a boost. Anything involving drilling, such as geothermal and geologic hydrogen, is likely to benefit from policies favorable to oil and gas extraction. Grid-related startups could also benefit from proposed permitting overhauls.Companies that generate power, such as those in the nuclear and geothermal sectors, are likely to gain as well. Surging AI investments have put a strain on electric utilities and independent power producers, creating opportunities for these companies to provide much-needed power.

The Role of the Energy Secretary

Chris Wright, who Trump has tapped to be his energy secretary, could play a significant role. He is on the board at Oklo, an SMR startup, and his company has invested in Fervo. This suggests that he may have a more nuanced view of climate tech and could potentially support certain sectors.However, it remains to be seen how his influence will play out and what impact it will have on the climate tech sector.In conclusion, investors and their portfolio companies will have to wait and see how the new administration's policies actually affect the climate tech sector. The only constant in the next four years is likely to be change and instability.

The 2024 presidential election brought significant changes to the United States, and one area that saw remarkable success was the crypto industry. Hundreds of pro-crypto lawmakers were elected alongside Donald Trump's victory. The cryptocurrency industry spent millions of dollars to support candidates and platforms advocating for policies that could expand the Bitcoin-driven sector. Shortly after Trump's election, Bitcoin advocates from the non-profit Satoshi Action Fund sent out an email congratulating the industry. CEO Dennis Porter discussed legislative priorities and promised direct lines to senior government officials.

Unraveling the Crypto Future under Trump's Second Term

Bitcoin Advocacy and Policy Priorities

Porter emphasized that priorities in the crypto community aren't unified. There's excitement around strategic Bitcoin reserves, but it's also important to get basic regulatory structures in place. FIT21 is one such legislation designed to regulate the crypto world and assign government bodies to manage the rules. Porter admitted that the Trump team hasn't explicitly supported market definition legislation, but they should be.There's clear signaling from the Trump camp that they're interested in the strategic Bitcoin reserve. Trump endorsed this type of legislation after Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act of 2024. This act aims to establish a program for the Treasury Department to buy up to one million Bitcoins over five years with a 20-year holding period.

Crypto Opponent's Perspective

Crypto opponent Molly White isn't convinced that Porter's hopes and the industry's plans match up with crypto's history. She pointed out that the crypto industry generally opposes regulation, except for FIT21, which reduces the SEC's authority over cryptocurrencies. White believes that no regulations have changed to prevent another FTX-like event and that the industry is now trying to reduce regulations.She also criticized Trump's vision of the strategic Bitcoin reserve, which differs from what the crypto community supports. RFK Jr's proposal to buy four million Bitcoins a day is different from Trump's idea of using seized Bitcoin for investigations.

Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact

Cryptocurrency mining using proof-of-work is energy and water-intensive. A single Bitcoin transaction consumes as much electricity as an average US household uses in almost a month. Porter recommended using orphaned oil and gas wells to generate energy for mining to reduce methane emissions and groundwater contamination. He's confident that the Satoshi Action Fund will have a willing ear at the EPA as his cofounder has experience there.Porter also advocated for attaching Bitcoin mining operations to renewable energy facilities to avoid curtailing energy during underutilization. White, however, doesn't believe this is a compelling argument as miners already try to mine cheaply and Trump is unlikely to focus on greening the mining process.If Bitcoin wins and its value rises, its energy footprint will also grow. Digiconomist's Alex de Vries estimated that 60 percent of the price value of a Bitcoin will end up as electricity costs. Bitcoin's value rallied after Trump's election but hasn't reached $100k yet and is falling again.

The Impact on the Broader Economy

Porter's wishes for a Bitcoin-fueled future are just that - wishes. The advocacy for Bitcoin is pushing the price and energy footprint up. The only blessing in the 2022 cryptocurrency wipeout was that those without crypto investments were insulated. White is concerned that a pro-crypto regime could weaken the barrier between the crypto industry and the rest of the economy. If the Trump administration legitimizes crypto with new policies, future crypto volatility could affect the broader US economy, as seen in Bitcoin's recent price drop.Whether these predictions come true is as unpredictable as Bitcoin's daily price. With the Trump administration's mercurial nature, anything is possible.