Futures
The Pivotal Day: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and Its Aftermath
2024-11-14
Nov. 5 indeed held great significance for the country. This 2024 U.S. presidential election was widely regarded as one of the most crucial national elections in our lifetimes. For millions, it was more than just a political contest; it symbolized a turning point for civil liberties, personal autonomy, and the well-being of marginalized communities.

Across the Nation on Election Night

Hundreds of millions gathered around their TVs that election night, eagerly awaiting the news. After President-elect Trump's victory, Americans responded in diverse ways. The Harvard Independent focused on two voices committed to safeguarding women's rights in the coming months and believing that reproductive rights were at risk following Nov. 5.

The Election Watch Party at Harvard

On campus, Harvard's Institute of Politics (IOP) organized an election watch party in Sanders Theater for the first time in the College's history. The IOP's Communications Director, Hana O'Looney '26, described the event and its remarkable impact in an interview with the Independent. "We had over 2,000 RSVPs, and more than 1,500 people showed up throughout the night. It was incredible. We received a lot of positive feedback that it got people really excited about the election and democracy in general. That was the goal of the event," O'Looney said. The number of RSVPs, representing 27.8% of the undergraduate population, showed the significant turnout. As the night progressed and the results became clearer, the crowd's energy started to wane. "I would definitely say, in full transparency, that the energy was very high at the beginning when we started at 8 p.m. but dwindled as the night went on. The IOP is a nonpartisan organization, but I think most people in that room were rooting for Kamala Harris to win. As the night went on, it became clearer that that wasn't going to happen," she added.

Concerns about Trump's Return and Abortion

In the past few months and into the middle of election day night, O'Looney drew attention to how many Americans are now worried about how Donald Trump's return to office would look. "I think what's scary about this election is that it's not just the presidency. It's also the Senate, and most likely the House and the judiciary. With all that in line, it gives him full control to implement whatever he wants," O'Looney explained. She also expressed concern about abortion's unprotected status at the national level. "I think it's scary to leave this decision up to states in terms of women's reproductive rights because we know there are many states constantly trying to take those rights away from women," she said.

Encouraging Student Involvement

Although O'Looney understands that many on campus and at the IOP may be discouraged by the election results, she explained that there are still ways for students to get involved and fight for the issues they care about. Speaking from her own experience, O'Looney has been involved in politics at the local level and was elected the Student Member of the Board of Education in Montgomery County, MD, in 2021. She emphasized that local elections can have a greater impact on our daily lives. "One thing we should focus on and gain more energy for with the IOP in the spring and moving forward is to get students more engaged in Massachusetts politics and politics back home. If big decisions like reproductive rights are going to be left to states, we have to work hard at the state level," she said. On campus, Harvard offers various opportunities for students to get involved in political organizing, such as joining advocacy groups, participating in campaign efforts, attending political forums and debates, or volunteering with student-run organizations focused on policy change and social justice.

Responses Around the Nation

David Smith, a writer for The Guardian, explained how the election's outcome has sparked a surge of fear and uncertainty for many. He wrote, "the result is a catastrophe for the world." Some women around the country have also started taking action. Jada Mevs, a 25-year-old in Washington, D.C., is encouraging women across the U.S. to follow the 4B movement started in South Korea. The 4 B’s are bisekseu, bichulsan, biyeonae, and bihon, which translate to "no sex with men," "no giving birth," "no dating men," and "no marriage with men." In an interview with The New York Times, Mevs explained, "If we can't control what they do in terms of legislation and abortion rights, we have to do something for ourselves. Starting with cutting out the male influence in our life and making sure we take the safety precautions, visiting OB-GYNs, and being well-prepared for the future." The rising popularity of the 4B Movement shows the range of responses to the upcoming shift in presidential administration. At a time when reproductive freedoms are vulnerable, this movement offers women a way to take control of their lives and choose to prioritize their own well-being.

The Road to Safeguarding Freedoms

As these movements and conversations gain momentum, they highlight the need for unity, resilience, and creative resistance in the face of political challenges. Whether through local political action, national advocacy, or personal choices to live life on their own terms, O'Looney noted that safeguarding personal freedoms requires both legislative efforts and state-level engagement. "We should continue fighting both in Congress and within individual states to protect women's right to choose," she explained.Pippa Lee '28 (pippalee@college.harvard.edu) is interested in how the political landscape will evolve after the recent election.
Bitcoin (BTC) Perpetual Contracts and Tether USD (USDT): An Analysis
2024-11-14
Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual contracts denominated in Tether USD (USDT) have been drawing significant attention. Recent data from CryptoQuant shows signs of overleveraging, with the “open interest to USDT reserve ratio” reaching an all-time high of 0.593 on Nov. 10. This indicates a potential imbalance in the market. Ki Young Ju, the firm’s CEO, pointed out that the current levels are 2.7 times higher than in February when the ratio first crossed the dangerous zone in 2024. This raises concerns about the stability of the market.

Potential Painful Pullback

There is uncertainty about how high Bitcoin will go, but Ki Young Ju remains bullish on BTC in the long term. He emphasized that there will be a painful pullback once the leverage unwinds. This prediction adds to the volatility and uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price. In the few hours following CryptoQuant’s CEO post, Bitcoin registered a new all-time high of $93,523.65. However, this was quickly followed by a 5% correction, and the price is currently trading around $88,701.71. Despite the correction, the liquidations volume is still 5% down in the past 24 hours, totaling nearly $872 million. This shows that the market is still adjusting to the recent changes.

Healthy On-Chain Metrics

Despite the risk of unwinding leverage pressuring BTC’s price down, other on-chain metrics remain healthy. CryptoQuant analyst Martuun pointed out that retail investor demand reached a 52-month high in the past 30 days. This indicates a strong interest from individual investors in Bitcoin. He added that it is impossible to ignore that retail trading is fully back, with Dogecoin surging, high funding rates, and a spike in Google searches for Bitcoin. This shows that Bitcoin is still a popular asset among retail investors.Furthermore, according to a Glassnode report, the recent Bitcoin price spikes are predominantly driven by spot buyers on Coinbase’s market. The daily Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for Bitcoin’s spot market on Coinbase reached $143 million, nearing the $152 million peak seen in March. This movement in the US market reflects a steady rise in buyer-side pressure, reinforcing the robust demand from investors who view Bitcoin as an increasingly valuable asset. Since July, each Bitcoin rally has seen strong buy-side interest on Coinbase, signaling solid spot market demand. This demand trend also extends to spot ETFs, with US assets under management in Bitcoin spot ETFs surging by $8.8 billion over the past 30 days, surpassing the $6.9 billion increase in CME futures open interest. The preference for spot-driven ETFs reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment toward direct exposure over futures-based speculation.

Perpetual Futures and Spot Buying

While perpetual futures also saw a recent premium peak of $1.59 million per hour on Nov. 12, it remains below March levels. This indicates that spot buying, not leverage, is the primary driver of Bitcoin’s current rally. The data shows that the market is shifting towards a more stable and sustainable growth model, with spot buying playing a crucial role. This trend is likely to continue as investors become more cautious about the risks associated with leverage.In conclusion, Bitcoin’s market is experiencing significant changes and challenges. The overleveraging situation and the potential for a painful pullback are concerns that need to be monitored closely. However, the healthy on-chain metrics and the strong demand from spot buyers provide some optimism for the future of Bitcoin. As the market continues to evolve, it will be important to stay informed and adapt to the changing conditions.
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Bitcoin Derivatives: A Glimpse into Investor Sentiment and Market Trends
2024-11-14
Bitcoin derivatives have been presenting intriguing signs of cautious optimism among investors regarding potential gains in the forthcoming year. The market currently finds itself in a state of contango, with futures prices remaining at elevated levels. According to MarketWatch data, December contracts on CME traded at $91,355 on Wednesday, while longer-dated front-month contracts like June 2025 reached $95,670, in contrast to a spot price of $90,570. This indicates a certain pricing dynamic at play.

ARK Invest's Insights on Bitcoin Futures Market

ARK Invest stated in a report this week that Bitcoin's futures market, which has often signaled speculative pressure during contango periods, seems less overbought compared to previous highs this year. When Bitcoin is in contango, the futures price trades above the current spot price. This implies that investors are willing to pay a premium to acquire Bitcoin in the future, a situation typically driven by positive market sentiment and expectations of higher prices. In early 2024, when Bitcoin neared $71,000, futures traded at a 30% premium over spot on offshore exchanges, which ARK described as "speculative." However, by October, the contango on those platforms had decreased to around 11%, suggesting a reduction in speculative excess even in the face of the recent price rally. "Compared to earlier in 2024, the market appears less overbought now," ARK emphasized, highlighting a more stable pricing structure.
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