Cryptocurrency
Ripple's XRP: A Cryptocurrency's Millionaire Potential?
2024-12-09
Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable surge during the past month, rocketing up by nearly 40% within a few short weeks. The leading cryptocurrency is now approaching the six-figure price mark, bringing joy to investors. Just like in many previous runs over the past seven years, Bitcoin seems to be the driving force behind the upward trend, with other coins such as Solana and Cardano also experiencing a boost in price, mirroring Bitcoin's own success.
One of the Most Intriguing Altcoins - XRP
XRP's Aim at the Banking Industry
XRP serves as the token used by RippleNet, a payment network designed to facilitate seamless money transfers between banks and financial institutions worldwide. It combines the functions of a global settlement system, currency exchange, and remittance network. Traditional payment methods often come with high costs and slow processing times. However, by leveraging XRP and RippleNet, these institutions can achieve significant savings in both time and money, thereby enhancing customer service.Some institutions have already adopted XRP, and it has a proven track record. The network is incredibly fast, extremely cost-effective, and can handle a large volume of transactions without slowing down. In the crypto world, this refers to its scalability. Compared to Bitcoin, XRP stands out in these aspects.XRP's proponents firmly believe that its real-world commercial applications give it inherent value.But There Are Complications
At first glance, the pitch for XRP seems highly logical. The banking industry pays billions of dollars in fees each year, with approximately $193 billion in 2023. If XRP were to become the standard, it could capture a significant portion of this value. However, there are several issues. Firstly, the primary reason for banks to take on the risk of transitioning away from a proven standard is to achieve substantial cost savings. Therefore, even if the entire industry were to switch, the revenue generated would likely be a fraction of the $193 billion.An even more fundamental problem is that XRP does not necessarily need to be adopted for banks to utilize RippleNet. While some specific functions require XRP, the majority of RippleNet's features can be operated using regular currency.XRP Faces Less Regulatory Pressure
For years, one of the major factors affecting XRP's value was its ongoing legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its classification. The regulator sued XRP for allegedly facilitating an "unregistered digital asset securities offering." Fortunately, the courts recently ruled in XRP's favor. Additionally, the SEC's tough-on-crypto chairman, Gary Gensler, has announced his intention to step down in January. It is expected that Trump will nominate a more crypto-friendly replacement.This development has undoubtedly contributed to XRP's recent price explosion, but the question remains: is it sufficient?Evaluating XRP as a Millionaire Maker
Before determining whether XRP is a millionaire maker, we need to define this term clearly as it is somewhat ambiguous. For the purpose of this article, let's assume that it would need to turn a $10,000 investment into $1,000,000 in 30 years. I understand that this may not be as thrilling as achieving the same in five years, but our goal is to build a diversified portfolio for the long term rather than seeking quick riches.Considering inflation, $1 million in 30 years is equivalent to only about $300,000 today. To be a true millionaire maker by today's standards, XRP would need to turn our $10,000 investment into $3.3 million, which is a challenging task.For XRP to achieve this, it would need to increase from its current price of $2.7 to $891, representing a staggering 33,000% return. Over 30 years, this translates to an annual growth rate of 21.3%, which is more than double the historical average of the stock market. While it is not strictly impossible, I would be hesitant to predict that it will actually happen.Let's look at it from another perspective. The combined market capitalization of the 10 largest banks is currently around $3 trillion. Assuming a generous 10% annual growth rate, it will reach $52 trillion in 30 years. Based on our assumptions, XRP would need to grow to a market capitalization of $51 trillion during the same period. Do you truly believe that XRP could be worth nearly the same as the combined market caps of the 10 largest banks in the world?In conclusion, I am confident in stating that I do not consider XRP to be a millionaire maker under any circumstances. Despite its recent success, I am skeptical about its long-term growth prospects given the challenges in bank adoption and its current valuation. If you are interested in the crypto space, I believe Bitcoin is a more prudent choice for your investment.