The analysis of Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures on January 13, 2025, provides a comprehensive overview of potential bullish and bearish scenarios. Traders should focus on key price levels to anticipate market movements effectively. A move above 20986 indicates strong bullish momentum, targeting critical institutional levels up to 21173. Conversely, a dip below 20957.5 suggests increasing selling pressure, with profit targets extending down to 20558. Understanding the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Value Area is crucial for identifying dynamic support and resistance zones, aiding in strategic trade entries and exits.
A significant upward movement in Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures could occur if the price surpasses 20986. This level marks a pivotal point as it places the price above today’s VWAP and the developing Value Area High (VAH). Such a scenario signals robust bullish momentum, likely attracting more buying interest from market participants. Traders can capitalize on this by setting profit targets at key institutional levels, including just below Friday’s VWAP, the Point of Control (POC), and near the first upper standard deviation of VWAP.
To fully leverage bullish opportunities, traders must closely monitor the price action around these critical thresholds. An ascent beyond 20986 not only reflects increased buyer strength but also opens the door to higher price levels. The initial target, 21062, is strategically positioned just under Friday’s VWAP, making it an attractive level for locking in early gains. As prices continue to climb, reaching 21100, which aligns with Friday’s POC, would indicate substantial volume support. Finally, a push towards 21173, below the VAH and the first upper standard deviation of VWAP, could face stronger resistance but offers lucrative rewards for those willing to ride the trend.
A decline below 20957.5 would signal growing selling pressure in Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures. This drop pushes the price under the VAH of the past two days, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. For traders adopting a bearish stance, understanding key support levels is essential for effective short-selling strategies. Initial targets include the VAH from two days ago, providing a logical stop for short positions. Further downside potential extends to the mid-November lows and even deeper into the VAHs from early November, offering multiple exit points for managing risk.
Bearish traders should be vigilant about price behavior around 20957.5, as breaking this level indicates weakening buyer support. The first bearish target, 20853, represents the VAH from two days ago, serving as an immediate reference for short sellers. Moving further down, 20712, just above the mid-November lows, presents a significant support zone that could attract buyers, making it a strategic point for partial profit-taking. Ultimately, a sustained bearish trend might push prices to 20558, near the VAHs from early November, where bearish momentum could find its ultimate runner target. Integrating these levels with VWAP and Delta data enhances the accuracy of bearish trade confirmations.
The global financial markets are experiencing a period of uncertainty, driven by key economic indicators and shifting trade dynamics. US stock futures dipped on Monday, reflecting concerns over strong employment data and upcoming inflation reports. Meanwhile, China's trade balance showed unexpected growth, while oil prices surged following new sanctions on Russian producers. This week promises to be pivotal for investors as they await crucial economic releases and corporate earnings reports.
Investors faced a cautious start to the trading week as US stock futures declined, influenced by robust December employment figures that dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The latest jobs report indicated a significant increase in employment, which may suggest tighter labor market conditions and continued inflationary pressures. These factors have heightened uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy for the coming year.
In detail, the Dow Jones futures dropped by 0.3%, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.8%. The previous session saw a retreat in major averages, largely due to the strong December employment report. Analysts noted that the addition of 256,000 jobs exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping slightly to 4.1%. Such strong employment numbers may imply that inflationary pressures persist, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts. ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley emphasized that these positive job figures reinforce the view that the Fed is under no immediate pressure to reduce rates.
This week, the focus will shift to corporate earnings and critical economic data, including the consumer price index (CPI). Major banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are set to release their quarterly results, which could influence market sentiment. Additionally, China's trade balance showed an unexpected expansion, driven by stronger-than-expected exports amid preparations for potential US trade tariffs.
Economists predict that the December CPI will show a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, faster than the previous month's 2.7%. Despite the Fed's earlier confidence in moderating inflation, annual price gains remain above its 2% target. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed optimism about easing inflation, noting that wage growth aligns with Fed estimates. On the trade front, China's trade balance expanded to $104.84 billion in December, exceeding expectations. Exports grew by 10.7%, while imports increased by 1%, signaling improved local demand. Oil prices also climbed, supported by new sanctions on Russian producers, potentially impacting global crude flows and prices.