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Bonds

Navigating the Bond Market's Turbulent Tides: Investors Brace for a Pivotal Week Ahead

2024-11-01

Investors who have been hedging against a deeper selloff in US Treasuries are preparing for increased volatility as the release of the highly anticipated US employment report on Friday and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision next week offer crucial insights into the direction of the bond market.

Bracing for Turbulence: Investors Gear Up for a Pivotal Week in the Bond Market

Anticipating the Impact of Economic Data and the Fed's Next Move

US bonds remained relatively unchanged in early Asian trading on Friday, following a dismal October performance that saw the worst monthly results in two years. With the looming election and the Fed meeting just days away, a measure of daily yield swings has reached its highest point in a year as traders position themselves for further losses. This could potentially send 10-year yields as high as 4.5% over the next three weeks, compared to the current level of around 4.3%.This positioning makes the evidence of a robust US labor market in the government data released on Friday a crucial factor that the market cannot ignore, according to Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. While weak data could be attributed to the impact of strikes and storms, a strong jobs report would remove pressure on policymakers as they consider lowering interest rates.

The Fed's Balancing Act: Navigating Expectations and Policy Decisions

McIntyre believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to surprise the markets too much, and he expects a quarter-point rate cut at next week's meeting, in line with the consensus among most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. However, he anticipates the Fed will send a hawkish message and signal that they are done cutting rates for a while.The selloff in Treasuries over the past month, with yields rising by roughly 60 basis points, has been sparked in part by an unexpectedly strong reading of September's job data. Since then, volatility has increased in anticipation of the upcoming presidential debate and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path.

Volatility Spikes as Traders Brace for Turbulence

The ICE BofA Move Index, a closely watched gauge of US bond-market volatility, closed at its highest level this year this week, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to protect against increased turbulence. A notable flow on Thursday included a long volatility play for a premium of $10 million via options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.Traders are currently pricing in about a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point next week, which is smaller than the half-point reduction in September. Swap rates anticipate a total of about 117 basis points of easing over the next 12 months, about 67 basis points less than at the beginning of October.

Shifting Positions and Expectations in the Bond Market

The unwinding of positions has been reflected in the cash market, where the latest survey from JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows clients reducing both long and short positions, with neutrals on the rise.In the options market, traders have been positioning for a further selloff. Thursday's flows included a $6.5 million premium bet on a 4.4% 10-year yield by November 22, while the most-populated option put strike targets a rise to 4.5%.While the October jobs report is unlikely to alter expectations for the November Fed decision, the data could still "move market expectations for the path of rate cuts during future meetings," said Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors. Traders will pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which economists forecast will remain steady at 4.1%. Strong data has the power to bolster bond-market expectations for a potential pause in interest-rate cuts early next year.

The Fed's Balancing Act: Lowering Rates and Signaling Future Policy

While the Fed will likely lower rates next week, "shifting to a quarterly pace of 25 basis point cuts by skipping January remains the path of least resistance and is consistent with our expectations – as well as a relatively consensus take at the moment," according to Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.As investors navigate the turbulent bond market, they must carefully weigh the impact of economic data, the Fed's policy decisions, and the broader market sentiment. With volatility on the rise and the potential for significant shifts in yields, investors must remain vigilant and prepared for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

In the world of collegiate swimming, where dreams are pursued with unwavering dedication, Fitter and Faster Swim Camps proudly celebrates the achievements of Luke Eskola, a talented athlete from Hillsboro, Oregon, who has committed to the University of Denver. This announcement marks a significant milestone in Eskola's journey, as he prepares to embark on a new chapter in his swimming career.

Empowering the Next Generation of Aquatic Champions

A Promising Future at the University of Denver

Luke Eskola, a current senior at Liberty High School, has made the decision to continue his academic and athletic pursuits at the University of Denver. This prestigious institution has a rich history of producing exceptional swimmers, and Eskola is eager to be a part of this legacy. "The team and coaches at the University of Denver made me feel like I was truly wanted and valued," Eskola shared. "The swimmers are so excited about the future of the program, and I can't wait to be a part of that."Eskola's impressive performance at the recent Oregon Region XII SC Championships, where he set a new personal best in the 200 breaststroke and placed sixth in the 200 IM, has only further solidified his potential. His continued success at the 2024 Futures Championships in Sacramento, where he lowered several of his personal bests and made two final appearances, has only added to the excitement surrounding his future at the University of Denver.

Carrying the Torch of Hillsboro Heat's Legacy

Eskola's commitment to the University of Denver also holds a special significance, as he will be following in the footsteps of Hillsboro Heat alum Anton Loncar, who was the 2018 Summit League male swimmer of the year. Loncar's remarkable achievements, including breaking and holding Denver's school records in the 200 back and 100 back, as well as his impressive performances at the NCAA Championships, have set a high bar for Eskola to aspire to."This connection means a lot to me, knowing that while at DU, I will be supported in my swimming and education, and that the sky's the limit!" Eskola expressed, eager to continue the legacy of success that Hillsboro Heat has established.

Joining a Powerhouse Program

The University of Denver is a Division I Mid-Major school that competes in the Summit League, a conference that has seen the Pioneers dominate in recent years. In 2024, the team won their 10th conference championship in the last 11 years, showcasing their consistent excellence.Eskola's arrival on the Denver roster will bolster an already impressive lineup. The Pioneers' depth chart indicates that Eskola would have ranked 10th in the 200 IM and 6th in the 400 IM, demonstrating his potential to contribute significantly to the team's success. With the departure of two of Denver's top IMers, Eskola's addition will provide a valuable opportunity for him to make an immediate impact.

A Diverse and Talented Incoming Class

Eskola will not be the only new face on the Denver roster next fall. He will be joined by a diverse and talented group of incoming athletes, including Utah's Gabe Jones, Texas' Kurt Owens, and two Colorado natives, Pierce Bickerton and Bayden Todd. This influx of new talent promises to elevate the Pioneers' program to even greater heights, as they continue to attract top-tier swimmers from across the country.As Eskola embarks on this exciting new chapter, he can take comfort in the knowledge that he will be surrounded by a supportive team and coaching staff, all of whom are dedicated to helping him reach his full potential. With his unwavering determination and the resources of the University of Denver at his disposal, the future looks bright for this rising star from Hillsboro.

The air was electric as the Maryville Rebels and Farragut Admirals took the field for their highly anticipated TSSAA football matchup on Halloween night. Fans from both schools packed the stands, eager to witness the clash of these two powerhouse programs. The players, decked out in their team colors, were primed and ready to leave it all on the field. With the crisp autumn breeze and the scent of pumpkin spice in the air, the stage was set for an unforgettable evening of high school football.

A Spooktacular Showdown: Maryville and Farragut High Schools Bring the Halloween Spirit to the Gridiron

Gridiron Clash: Maryville and Farragut Battle for Supremacy

The Maryville Rebels and Farragut Admirals engaged in a hard-fought battle on the gridiron, with both teams showcasing their offensive and defensive prowess. The game was a back-and-forth affair, with each team trading blows and refusing to back down. Farragut's Landon Collins (11) made a statement early on, scoring a touchdown that had the Admirals' faithful roaring with excitement. Not to be outdone, Maryville's Price Davis (1) answered with a touchdown of his own, igniting the Rebels' sideline and their loyal supporters.As the game progressed, the intensity only increased. Farragut's Kent Carbaugh (15) and Maryville's Hudson Jamerson (21) engaged in a fierce battle for the ball, their athleticism and determination on full display. The crowd held their collective breath as the players fought for every yard, each play a testament to the hard work and dedication of these young athletes.

Halftime Festivities: Marching Bands and Cheerleaders Bring the Halloween Spirit to Life

As the first half drew to a close, the Farragut High School marching band took the field, their instruments and uniforms adorned with Halloween-themed decorations. The crowd erupted in cheers as the band members showcased their musical prowess, their performance a true celebration of the spooky season. Not to be outdone, the Maryville cheerleaders donned their best zombie costumes, adding an extra layer of excitement to the already electric atmosphere.The halftime show was a true spectacle, with the Farragut marching band and Maryville cheerleaders captivating the audience with their spirited performances. The students' enthusiasm and dedication were palpable, as they brought the Halloween spirit to life on the football field.

Senior Night Celebrations: Honoring the Contributions of Farragut and Maryville's Graduating Players

As the game progressed, the focus shifted to the seniors of both teams, who were being honored for their years of hard work and dedication. Farragut's Harrison Kilpatrick (2), Jacob Cabrera (71), and Luke Finnegan (14) were among the seniors celebrated, their contributions to the team over the years recognized and celebrated by their teammates, coaches, and adoring fans.The Farragut cheerleading team and dance squad also joined in the festivities, showcasing their skills and enthusiasm as they honored the senior members of their squads. The Farragut student section, decked out in Halloween costumes, added to the celebratory atmosphere, their cheers and chants echoing throughout the stadium.

Defensive Dominance: Maryville and Farragut's Standout Defensive Plays

While the offensive fireworks captivated the crowd, the defensive players of both teams also had their moments to shine. Maryville's Andrew Smith (17) made a crucial interception, his athleticism and quick reactions earning him a roar of approval from the Rebels' faithful. Farragut's Kent Carbaugh (15) also made his presence felt, delivering a series of hard-hitting tackles that left the Maryville offense reeling.The defensive battle was just as intense as the offensive showdown, with both teams refusing to give an inch. The players' tenacity and determination were on full display, as they fought to gain the upper hand and secure the victory for their respective schools.

Kicking Prowess: Farragut's Ryan McCue (37) and Maryville's Hudson Jamerson (21) Showcase Their Leg Strength

As the game entered the final stages, the kicking game took center stage. Farragut's Ryan McCue (37) stepped up and drilled a crucial field goal, his accuracy and power earning him the admiration of the Admirals' supporters. Not to be outdone, Maryville's Hudson Jamerson (21) showcased his own kicking prowess, booming punts that pinned the Farragut offense deep in their own territory.The battle between the two kickers added an extra layer of excitement to the game, as the crowd held their breath with each kick. The players' ability to execute under pressure was a testament to their skill and dedication, further elevating the intensity of the Halloween night showdown.

Sideline Celebrations: Coaches and Fans Bring the Energy to the Gridiron

Throughout the game, the sidelines were alive with energy and enthusiasm. Farragut head coach Geoff Courtney and Maryville head coach Derek Hunt paced the sidelines, their animated gestures and passionate instructions inspiring their players to give their all. The fans, too, were in full voice, their cheers and chants echoing through the stadium and fueling the players' competitive fire.The sideline celebrations were a reflection of the deep-rooted rivalry between these two schools, as well as the unwavering support of their respective communities. The players fed off the energy of the crowd, their determination and grit only growing stronger with each passing minute.

Thrilling Conclusion: A Nail-Biting Finish Leaves Fans on the Edge of Their Seats

As the final seconds ticked away, the game remained a tightly contested affair, with neither team willing to concede an inch. The players on both sides gave it their all, leaving everything they had on the field. The crowd, captivated by the drama unfolding before them, held their collective breath, their eyes fixed on the action.In the end, it was Maryville who emerged victorious, their hard-fought win a testament to the team's resilience and determination. The Rebels' players and coaches celebrated on the field, while the Farragut faithful applauded their team's valiant effort.The Halloween night showdown between Maryville and Farragut High Schools was a true spectacle, a celebration of the passion and spirit that make high school football such a beloved tradition. The players, coaches, and fans alike left the stadium with memories that will last a lifetime, their excitement and enthusiasm a testament to the enduring power of the gridiron.