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The Lone Star State Showdown: Texans vs. Cowboys

2024-11-18

Gambling content 21+ is a common sight in the sports world. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information. In this prime-time matchup between the Texans and Cowboys, let's explore the odds and potential value.

Uncover the Value in this Monday Night Football Clash

Texans vs. Cowboys Odds

The Texans enter this game as road favorites, with a spread of -7.5 and a moneyline of -340. The total is set at over/under 41.5 points. After a lengthy absence, star wide receiver Nico Collins is back in the fold, but the Texans' offense has been inconsistent all year, ranking just 29th in early down EPA/play. Even with Collins healthy in the first five weeks, they ranked 31st in early down EPA/play.

On the other side, the Cowboys have their own set of challenges. Micah Parsons is back after missing much of the season with an injury and wasted no time with five pressures and two sacks against the Eagles last week. However, the Cowboys have struggled to defend the run all year, ranking dead last in EPA/rush allowed. We should expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon on Monday night.

When the Texans Have the Ball

Nico Collins is still PFF's highest-graded wide receiver this season, with a league-leading 3.5 yards per route run. He had 32 catches for 567 yards and three touchdowns in five games before his hamstring injury. But the Texans' offensive line has been a struggle, with C.J. Stroud pressured at a 31.9 percent rate, the second-highest of all qualified quarterbacks.

The Texans' offense needs to find consistency if they want to have success against the Cowboys. With Collins back, they have a weapon, but they'll need to protect Stroud better and make better plays in the passing game.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury, leaving the Cowboys' offense in a tough spot. They have the 28th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA and can't rely on their passing game either, with Cooper Rush completing just 26-of-48 passes (54 percent) over the last two weeks for 160 yards and a brutal 3.3 YPA clip.

DeMeco Ryans' defense ranks second in DVOA this year, loaded with talent at all three levels and ranking top five against the run and pass. While star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is out with an injury, this defense is still a force to be reckoned with.

Final Verdict

The Texans are priced as road favorites, and with Joe Mixon likely to dominate against a porous Cowboys run defense in a positive game script, there will be some offensive success. But Stroud will likely face consistent pressure from Parsons and company. Meanwhile, it's difficult to envision the Cowboys finding much offensive success against an elite Texans defense without Prescott. With both offenses ranking bottom five in early down EPA/play on the season, I can only look to the under in this game. Best Bet: Under 41.5 points (-110, ESPN BET)

Why Trust New York Post Betting? Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He's up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.

In a highly anticipated clash, the top-five ranked Big Ten teams are all set to go head-to-head. On Saturday, the mighty No. 2 Ohio State welcomes the tenacious No. 5 Indiana. This game holds significant importance as it will determine the second place in the league, with Ohio State currently sitting in third despite their 6-1 record in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes' path to victory is not an easy one, as they face the surprise team of the season - undefeated Indiana. Under the leadership of first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has achieved an unprecedented 10-win season, boasting the nation's second-ranked scoring offense.

Early Predictions and Odds

According to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State is a 11.5-point favorite against Indiana. The total for the game is set at 52.5 points. The moneyline odds for Ohio State are -465 to win outright, while for Indiana, it is +350. In terms of against the spread (ATS) records, Ohio State is 5-5 overall this season (50%), while Indiana is an impressive 8-2 (80%) ATS in 2024, ranking third nationally. At home this year, Ohio State is 3-3 against the spread, and on the road, Indiana is 3-0 ATS. The total went under in 6 of Ohio State's last 7 games, and Indiana has been 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. Ohio State is 8-4 against the spread in its last 12 home games, and Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games against Ohio State. In November, Ohio State is 4-2 against the spread, and the total went over in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games.

Betting Trends and Consensus Picks

A majority of bettors expect Indiana to give Ohio State a tough fight this weekend. According to the spread consensus picks, 66 percent of bets are on Indiana to either win outright in an upset or keep the margin within a dozen points in a loss. The remaining 44 percent of wagers project Ohio State to emerge victorious and cover the big spread. The game's implied score suggests a comfortable win for Ohio State, with a projected score of 32 to 21 when taking the point spread and total into consideration.

Analysis of Team Performances

Ohio State has had its moments this season, but their performance against the spread has been inconsistent. Their defense, which is usually strong, has shown some vulnerabilities against aggressive passing offenses. On the other hand, Indiana has been on a roll, with their high-scoring offense and solid road record. The undefeated streak and their recent ATS success give them confidence going into this game. However, facing a top-ranked team like Ohio State will be a true test for them.

Key Matchups to Watch

One of the key matchups to watch in this game is the battle between Ohio State's offense and Indiana's defense. Ohio State's offense has the potential to break through Indiana's defensive line and create scoring opportunities. Conversely, Indiana's defense will need to step up and contain Ohio State's star players. Another important matchup is on the defensive side, as both teams will try to disrupt the other's passing game. Indiana's aggressive defense will pose a challenge for Ohio State's quarterbacks, while Ohio State's defensive line will need to apply pressure to Indiana's offensive line.

When Kalen DeBoer was appointed to replace Nick Saban as Alabama's football coach, one of the most significant concerns was his ability to recruit at a level that would keep the program stocked with top talent. DeBoer has long been renowned for his strategic acumen in game planning, but in the SEC, having just that isn't sufficient. You need the crème de la crème of talent to consistently compete in this league.

Early Recruiting Success and Setbacks

Initially, the results were quite promising as DeBoer kept the Crimson Tide in the Top 5 of most recruiting rankings, reaching as high as No. 2 in the 247 composite rankings. However, a brutal week on the recruiting trail saw Alabama plummet all the way down to No. 4. It all began when 5-star WR Caleb Cunningham switched his commitment from the Tide to Ole Miss after attending their upset win over Georgia in Oxford.The setbacks continued a few days later when 4-star LB and long-time Alabama commitment Dawson Merritt flipped to Nebraska. On Sunday, the Tide experienced its third decommitment of the 2025 class when RB Anthony “Turbo” Rogers pulled back his pledge. Rogers seems to be leaning towards Ohio State, but no public decision has been made yet.Although these players are good, none of their decisions came as a complete surprise. Cunningham has been on his third commitment and has been taking visits since July. Merritt is staying closer to home to fulfill his dream of playing at Nebraska. Rogers committed to Saban and has never seemed to have a high regard for the current coaching staff in Tuscaloosa.There is a reason why the coaching staff has been working hard to secure the commitment of AK Dear and has continued to recruit other running backs like Michigan State commitment Jace Clarizio and USC pledge Harry Dalton.

Remaining Talent in the Class

Alabama still boasts one of the best classes in the country, led by four composite 5-stars: QB Keelon Russell, IOL Michael Carroll, CB Dijon Lee, and OT Ty Haywood. There is good news on the horizon as the Tide is trending to flip 4-star safety and Michigan pledge Ivan Taylor.Alabama is also making efforts to flip Florida WR commit Naeshaun Montgomery, who visited the Capstone over the weekend.Recruiting is indeed a roller coaster. Saban was so proficient at it that Alabama fans could often overlook it and be confident that the Tide would sign one of the top classes year after year. But that luxury is now gone, and the Crimson Tide is on the wild ride of recruiting.Alabama is on track to sign a Top 5 class, which would be an astonishing achievement for DeBoer and his staff considering they had to start from scratch in 2025 following Saban's unexpected retirement in January.