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Growing Role of Biotech First-Time Launchers in Competing with Established Players
2024-11-25
In recent years, the pharmaceutical landscape has witnessed a significant surge in the role of first-time launchers. These companies are at the forefront of bringing much-needed innovation to market. Over the past decade, a growing share of new molecular entities submitted for FDA approval has come from these early-stage entities. From 2018 to 2023, approximately 40 percent of new assets were launched by companies with limited commercialization experience, nearly doubling their contribution from the previous five years. This trend has persisted despite the recent biotech downturn, as shown in Exhibit 1.

Unleashing the Potential of First-Time Launchers in Pharma

Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Within the pharmaceutical industry, first-time launchers play a crucial role as innovators. They are developing breakthroughs in new modalities that have the potential to revolutionize patient care. For instance, cell and gene therapies make up 22 percent of their portfolios, compared to just 12 percent for established launchers. These companies are also providing promising solutions for rare-disease patients who previously had few or no treatment options, ranging from Duchenne muscular dystrophy to amyloidosis.

Despite their innovative efforts, first-time launchers face unique challenges when bringing their products to market. The high cost of launching and building a commercial engine while maintaining R&D commitments can strain their resources. Additionally, the recent biotech downturn has led to increased competition for the funding needed to power commercial launches.

Financial Success and Portfolio Considerations

At the core of any biotech company is its portfolio. Assets targeting rare-disease or white space indications have a higher chance of launch and financial success. First-time launchers with assets in white space indications are 1.7 times more likely to exceed expectations than those in indications with three or more competitors. These companies have thrived in rare diseases, with a launch success rate of approximately 40 percent. About half of rare-disease first-time launchers also outperformed the S&P Biotech Index in total shareholder returns, as shown in Exhibit 3.

Innovative assets can pave the way to launch success, but they do not guarantee financial success. Over 30 percent of innovative assets from first-time launchers outperform expectations, compared to 20 percent of less innovative products. However, first-time launchers with innovative assets are no more likely to outperform the S&P Biotech Index than those with less disruptive products. A company's pipeline also plays a critical role in its financial success and future growth potential. First-time launchers with multiple assets have higher rates of financial success, with about half outperforming the S&P 500 Biotech Index over a five-year period, compared to roughly 30 percent of their single-product peers.

Commercial Launch and Funding

Any commercial launch requires significant SG&A investment in addition to funding for R&D. First-time launchers need to support investment throughout the launch period to achieve success. On average, they invest $80 million to $100 million annually in SG&A starting from the launch year and continuing for subsequent years. Those aiming to beat prelaunch forecasts or compete with established launchers typically spend much more. Companies that outperform commercial expectations invest 1.5 times as much on launch activities as their peers that do not, as shown in Exhibit 4.

Due to cash constraints, first-time launchers have historically struggled in larger indications. However, some have managed to succeed in highly competitive and expansive treatment areas dominated by established players. For example, some first-time launchers in neuroscience and primary care indications have leveraged a robust commercial engine and a large sales force to compete effectively.

Fundraising and Market Timing

The ability to finance a large-scale launch while maintaining a focus on R&D is crucial for first-time launchers. Most go public about six years before launch and seek follow-on fundraising. Successful first-time launchers raise significantly more funds, on average two to three times that of their less successful peers. They typically raise funds earlier and more aggressively in the years leading up to launch, as shown in Exhibit 5. Timing fundraising to critical moments in asset development, such as initial pivotal trial results and regulatory approval, can lead to greater success in today's competitive biotech fundraising environment.

Alternative Paths to Market

First-time launchers lacking funding or an asset mix can consider alternative approaches. Partnering with an established launcher or developing next-generation commercial capabilities can be viable options. Partnerships may reduce short-term revenues but provide long-term benefits by tapping into the partner's expertise. Companies can also invest in next-generation capabilities to become more precise at initial launch and across future commercialization efforts.

Next-Generation Commercial Capabilities

Commercialization needs have shifted across go-to-market capabilities. First-time launchers can meet these challenges by leveraging lessons from industry leaders. Data-driven, precise marketing techniques are crucial for them with limited resources. AI tools like "next-best action" models prioritize healthcare professionals based on factors such as historical behavior and patient demographics. First-time launchers can also maximize the impact of direct-to-consumer engagement by tailoring content to microsegments defined by patient needs and behaviors.

New channels like social media, connected TV, and revamped websites offer cost-effective reach for first-time launchers. Recruiting marketing roles early ensures that digital capabilities are ready for launch. With a digital, data-driven go-to-market strategy, these companies can set the stage for next-generation commercial engagement from the start.

Access and Distribution Strategies

Pharmaceutical companies face complexity in market access. First-time launchers often struggle due to limited portfolio breadth and payer relationships. They tend to delay onboarding their market access function, which leads to a late access strategy. However, by prioritizing access earlier in their launch planning and building in-house capabilities or contracting with external vendors when needed, they can set a sustainable access strategy.

A clear demonstration of high patient need with rapid volume growth can enable earlier coverage expansion. Companies can accelerate coverage by considering access in pivotal study design and generating early superiority data. Early engagement on access and an impactful evidence strategy can position a therapy for earlier coverage expansion.

First-time launchers should also consider the complexities in distribution strategies. A fit-for-purpose strategy is important for complex products like cell and gene therapies. Some select first-time launchers in broader indications have partnered with existing pharmacies or telehealth providers for direct-to-patient distribution. By determining their distribution strategy early, they can establish a clear pathway for patient access upon approval.

First-time launchers represent a growing and vital part of the pharmaceutical industry. By learning from their predecessors and crafting a tailored go-to-market strategy, these innovators can achieve their growth and performance aspirations while maximizing shareholder value and patient impact.

Building AI Trust: The Crucial Role of Explainability
2024-11-26
Artificial intelligence holds the promise of significant economic gains and positive social change worldwide. In 2024, the adoption of AI-powered software and platforms has surged, but so has the trepidation. McKinsey research shows that 91 percent of respondents doubt their organizations' preparedness to implement and scale AI safely and responsibly. This doubt is understandable given the novel risks posed by generative AI, such as hallucinations and inaccurate outputs.

Why Trust is the Foundation for AI Adoption

To capture the full potential value of AI, organizations must build trust. Trust is essential as it leads to the adoption of AI-powered products and services. If customers or employees lack trust in AI systems, they won't use them. Understanding how AI-powered software works and how its outputs are created increases trust. In a McKinsey survey, 40 percent of respondents identified explainability as a key risk in adopting generative AI, yet only 17 percent were working to mitigate it.

Enhanced AI Explainability (XAI): The Key to Building Trust

XAI is an emerging approach to building AI systems that helps organizations understand their inner workings and monitor output objectivity and accuracy. By shedding light on black-box AI algorithms, XAI increases trust and engagement among AI tool users. This is crucial as AI initiatives move from early use case deployments to enterprise-wide adoption.

Why Invest in XAI: Getting ROI

In an uncertain AI landscape, organizations must consider the benefits and costs of enhancing AI explainability. Leading AI labs like Anthropic are betting on XAI as a path to differentiation. Enterprises also need to meet stakeholder and regulatory expectations. Demand for XAI is rising, with global AI regulations imposing transparency requirements. Organizations need methods to provide visibility into AI model building and testing. XAI is a set of tools and practices to help humans understand AI model predictions and content. It requires investments in tools, people, and processes.

Operational-Risk Mitigation through XAI

XAI enables early identification and mitigation of potential issues in AI models, reducing operational failures and reputational damage. For example, financial services companies use AI in fraud detection but often struggle to understand their systems. Explainability helps them fine-tune systems and introduce human oversight.

Regulatory Compliance and Safety with XAI

XAI ensures AI systems operate within frameworks, minimizing compliance risks and protecting brand integrity. In human resources, explainability ensures fair hiring decisions. It helps organizations understand why models make certain decisions and avoid bias.

Continuous Improvement with XAI

XAI supports the ongoing refinement of AI systems by providing insights into their functioning. It helps developers debug and improve systems to align with user and business expectations. Online retailers use explainability to improve recommendation engines.

Stakeholder Confidence in AI through XAI

XAI shifts the focus from AI model technical functioning to users, fostering a human-centric approach. In healthcare, it helps doctors understand AI systems, driving confidence and adoption.

User Adoption Boosted by XAI

XAI helps organizations monitor model output-user expectations alignment, increasing adoption, satisfaction, and top-line growth through innovation and change management.

XAI as a Human-Centered Approach to AI

Organizations need to understand diverse stakeholder needs and align explainability efforts. Stakeholders include executive decision makers, AI governance leaders, affected users, business users, regulators/auditors, and developers. Different stakeholders require different types and formats of explanations. AI explainability is like a bridge between engineers and end users, with AI-savvy humanists in the middle.

How XAI Works and Available Techniques

The XAI community creates new explainability techniques. They can be grouped based on stakeholders' intents and goals along two dimensions: when the explanation is produced (before or after training) and the scope (global or local). Post-hoc methods analyze trained models, while ante-hoc methods refer to intrinsically explainable models like decision trees. Global explanations help understand model decisions across all cases, while local explanations focus on specific decisions.

How to Start with XAI

Organizations should build cross-functional XAI teams comprising data scientists, AI engineers, domain experts, compliance leaders, regulatory experts, and user experience designers. They should establish a mindset of builders, engage early in the idea shaping process, define clear objectives, develop an action plan, measure metrics and benchmarks, select or build appropriate tools, and monitor and iterate.As enterprises rely more on AI-driven decision making, transparency and understanding become crucial. Trust is the key to responsible AI adoption, supported by pillars like explainability, governance, information security, and human-centricity. These pillars will enable AI and its users to interact harmoniously and deliver value while respecting human autonomy.
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Three Inspiring Figures: A Bookseller, a Computer Pioneer, and a Neurosurgeon
2024-11-26
Some individuals discover their life's purpose at a young age. Take Leonard Riggio, the chairman of Barnes & Noble. He stumbled upon his calling when inspired to open his first bookshop. This led to a revolutionary transformation in the bookselling realm as he established book superstores. Through strategic pricing, an expanded selection, ingeniously designed spaces, and cozy cafés, he managed to attract customers and boost sales, leaving his competitors envious.

The Power of Personal Experience

Former Warner-Lambert CEO Melvin Goodes joined the pharmaceutical company in 1965 and found similar inspiration. While working to stabilize the struggling drugmaker, he faced criticism of the cholesterol-reducing drug Lipitor. But Goodes took matters into his own hands by trying the drug himself and was motivated to share the positive results with financial analysts. This decision proved to be a turning point as Lipitor became the world's best-selling drug, generating an astonishing $2 billion in sales. 1: Melvin Goodes' act of trying the drug demonstrated his commitment and belief in its efficacy. It showed that sometimes, personal experience can be the key to unlocking great success. By sharing his positive results, he was able to build trust with the financial analysts and gain their support. This, in turn, led to the remarkable success of Lipitor. 2: The story of Melvin Goodes serves as a reminder that in the business world, innovation and determination can lead to extraordinary achievements. His willingness to take risks and go against the norm helped him turn a struggling drug into a global phenomenon.

Hewlett-Packard's Trailblazer

Hewlett-Packard executive Roy Clay Sr. faced discrimination that initially hindered his professional growth. However, he remained undeterred and persevered. Eventually, he became Hewlett-Packard's first Black executive and led the team that built HP's first computer. His story is a testament to the power of resilience and determination in the face of adversity. 1: Roy Clay Sr.'s journey was not an easy one. He had to overcome the barriers of discrimination and prove himself in a male-dominated industry. But his unwavering commitment and leadership skills allowed him to achieve great things. His success opened doors for other Black professionals and inspired them to pursue their dreams within the company. 2: By becoming the first Black executive at Hewlett-Packard, Roy Clay Sr. set an example for future generations. His leadership and innovation played a crucial role in the company's growth and development. His story is a source of inspiration for all those who face challenges in their careers.

Stanford's Feminist Advocate

Frances Conley, Stanford's first female surgical resident, fearlessly protested the promotion of a sexist colleague. Her actions inspired other women to share their own stories, and Stanford responded by encouraging her to remain on staff. Although she was not embraced by her male team, she was highly respected by the patients and female medical students she inspired. 1: Frances Conley's courage in standing up against sexism was a significant moment in Stanford's history. Her actions showed that women have the right to be heard and respected in the workplace. By sharing her story, she empowered other women to fight for their rights and pursue their careers. 2: Despite the lack of acceptance from her male team, Frances Conley's impact was undeniable. She became a role model for future female medical students and showed them that they can make a difference even in a male-dominated field. Her story is a reminder of the importance of gender equality in all aspects of life.
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