Agriculture
Grains Show Slight Decline This Morning on December 12, 2024
2024-12-12
This morning, the commodity market witnessed some interesting movements. March corn experienced a decline of 1½¢, while January soybeans saw a decrease of less than a penny. March wheat contracts also took a downward turn, with CBOT wheat down 1¼¢, KC wheat down 1½¢, and Minneapolis wheat down less than a penny. The USDA's weekly U.S. Export Sales report was released this morning, and it has sparked various discussions among traders.

Analysis by The Brock Report

Regarding the report, The Brock Report provided the following insights:

For the week ended Dec. 5, net weekly U.S. corn export sales came in at 37.3 million bushels. This is towards the low end of trade expectations, which ranged from 27.5 to 75 million bushels, and is lower than the previous week's sales of 69.1 million bushels. Although sales were above the weekly level needed to reach USDA's new 2024/2025 export sales forecast of 2.475 billion bushels, the overall trend seems neutral to slightly negative for corn prices.

Net weekly U.S. soybean export sales stood at 43.1 million bushels. This compared with trade expectations of 33 to 81 million bushels and the previous week's sales of 92.2 million bushels. The sales total appears largely neutral for soybean prices. However, soybean futures may find some support from USDA's daily sales announcement, which stated that exporters have sold 334,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/2025 delivery.

Net weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at 10.7 million bushels, compared with trade expectations of 9 to 22 million bushels and the previous week's sales of 14.9 million. The sales total seems somewhat negative for wheat prices, although it was exactly at the level needed to reach USDA's new 2024/2025 export forecast of 850 million bushels.

In addition to the grains, other markets also showed movements. February live cattle were up $1.15 this morning, January feeder cattle were up 80¢, and February lean hogs were up 38¢. January crude oil was down 62¢, and the U.S. Dollar Index December contract dropped to 106.55. December S&P 500 futures were down 18 points, and December Dow futures were down 21 points.Published: 9:11 a.m. CT
Iowa's Fourth Bird Flu Detection in a Week in a Sac County Flock
2024-12-12
According to the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, the highly pathogenic avian influenza has made its presence known in a commercial turkey flock in Sac County. This discovery comes on the heels of three other detections since Friday. The situation is of great concern as it spreads across different counties.

Impact and Safety Measures

The detection of the H5N1 virus in various flocks has led to significant actions. In Sac County, where a flock of 45,000 birds was affected, the whole flock will be culled to prevent the further spread of the virus. A press release from IDALS has assured Iowans that egg and poultry products are still safe to consume when cooked to an internal temperature of 165 F. This is an important safety measure that helps alleviate any concerns among the public.

Spread Across Counties

The virus has not been confined to just one area. IDALS and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS, have confirmed cases in a flock of layer chickens in Sioux County on December 6, another in a turkey flock in Palo Alto County on December 8, an additional detection in Sioux County on December 9, and now in a Sac County turkey flock. This shows the wide reach of the virus and the need for coordinated efforts to control its spread.

Governor's Response

For each of these affected counties, Governor Kim Reynolds has issued and extended a disaster proclamation. This proclamation aims to ease regulations and provide resources to state agencies working on controlling the virus. It shows the government's commitment to addressing the issue and supporting those affected.

Farm Workers and Biosecurity

Officials have emphasized that the risk of infection to humans is low. However, some farm workers have become ill from interacting with the infected animals. To prevent such incidents, the press release encourages commercial and backyard producers to monitor their flocks for symptoms of the virus. If they suspect any birds are infected, they should contact their veterinarians immediately. Additionally, continuing to exercise heightened biosecurity measures is crucial in preventing the spread of the virus.Iowa Capital Dispatch is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Iowa Capital Dispatch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Kathie Obradovich for questions: info@iowacapitaldispatch.com. Follow Iowa Capital Dispatch on Facebook and Twitter.
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With Trump's Return, Oil Refiners May Dominate RFS - Analyst Says
2024-12-12
The incoming Trump administration holds significant implications for the biofuels industry. According to biofuels analyst Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois, if it repeats the pattern of the president-elect's first term, it is likely to be unfriendly. There is a possibility of liberal approvals for waivers exempting small refiners from the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), along with efforts to reduce the ethanol mandate.

Refiners' Potential Resurgence

During a farmdoc daily webinar, Irwin stated, "We should assume refiners will be back in the driver's seat." It is expected to be a challenging and unpredictable journey in determining how this will ultimately affect biofuels. As such, it is crucial to be prepared and adapt.

Impact on Corn Ethanol in the First Trump Administration

In 2020, during the first Trump administration, corn ethanol use declined to 12.5 billion gallons. The EPA issued numerous small refinery exemptions under Trump. Farm-state lawmakers repeatedly appealed to President Trump to intervene with the EPA regarding the treatment of renewable fuels. This shows the significant influence of the administration on the biofuels sector.

Nomination of Lee Zeldin and His Potential Impact

This time, Trump has selected former Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York as his nominee for EPA administrator. During his four terms in the House, Zeldin sponsored bills to eliminate the RFS and block ethanol blends in gasoline exceeding 10%. If confirmed by the Senate, one of his early tasks will be setting the RFS for 2026–28. The Biden administration issued a three-year RFS "set" in 2022 but delayed the next set until December 2025, contrary to legal requirements. The 2025 RFS calls for using 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol and 7.4 billion gallons of cleaner-burning "advanced" biofuels.

The Role of Biofuels in Trump's Energy Independence Goal

The biofuel industry emphasizes that ethanol, derived from domestic grain, aligns with Trump's goal of energy independence. However, without policy incentives, there is no market for these fuels. The RFS is the most crucial factor in determining demand, along with the rules for the new 45Z clean-fuel tax credits and the potential impact of trade wars on fuel feedstock imports.

Uncertainty and Outlook

University of Illinois professor Irwin concluded, "I wish I could be more certain in outlook, but policy markets... are most uncertain when policy is highly uncertain." This highlights the complexity and unpredictability of the situation. It is essential to closely monitor the developments and adapt strategies accordingly.
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