La crisis económica mundial de 2008 marcó un punto de inflexión en la política global, dando paso a una nueva era dominada por el populismo. Este fenómeno ha transformado las estructuras democráticas, reemplazando los consensos procedimentales con modelos más discrecionales y autoritarios. Expertos como Javier Redondo y María Inés Fernández exploran este tema en su libro "La democracia después del populismo", donde examinan cómo el populismo ha cambiado la esencia de la democracia y qué implicaciones tiene para el futuro.
El Cambio Paradigmático en la Democracia
El populismo no es solo una respuesta a la crisis económica, sino también un resultado de un cambio profundo en la forma de entender la democracia. Los autores argumentan que hemos pasado de un modelo basado en consensos procedimentales a uno en el que los principios fundamentales, como la división de poderes, son secundarios ante conceptos como inclusión y participación. Este giro ha llevado a la emergencia de sistemas iliberales y democracias autoritarias.
María Inés Fernández explica que la democracia liberal se caracteriza por ser un marco para resolver conflictos en contextos inciertos y plurales. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, estos consensos han sido reemplazados por decisiones discrecionales que priorizan la voluntad popular sobre los mecanismos institucionales tradicionales. Este cambio ha afectado la legitimidad de las instituciones y ha abierto la puerta a nuevas formas de gobernar que desafían los cimientos del sistema democrático.
Implicaciones Prácticas del Populismo en España
El estudio no se limita a la teoría política, sino que también aborda las consecuencias prácticas del populismo en España. Javier Redondo sostiene que el Gobierno del PSOE está profundamente influenciado por tendencias populistas y antipolíticas, lo que plantea riesgos significativos para la integridad del sistema democrático. Estos incluyen la desacreditación del poder judicial y la erosión de la independencia del Tribunal Constitucional.
Redondo y Fernández destacan cómo el populismo ha alterado la retórica política en España, especialmente desde el año 2000, cuando América Latina comenzó a experimentar cambios similares. El uso de términos como "derecha y ultraderecha" por parte del Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez refleja una estrategia de polarización que busca legitimar a ciertos grupos mientras estigmatiza a otros. Este enfoque ha creado una narrativa moralizada que divide a la sociedad en buenos y malos, afectando tanto al espacio público como a la esfera privada. Además, la obra subraya la importancia de reconocer que los desafíos a la democracia provienen no solo de fuerzas externas, sino también de dentro de nuestras propias sociedades.
In the face of economic uncertainties, a recent report by Colliers highlights a notable improvement in business confidence within the Asia-Pacific region. The fourth quarter of 2024 witnessed increased investment activities in key markets such as China and Hong Kong. Investors have shown particular interest in properties that offer significant discounts or repurposing potential. Retail sectors across multiple cities benefited from heightened consumer spending during the festive season, driving changes in capitalization rates. Meanwhile, the office sector faces challenges due to new high-quality green buildings entering the market, while the industrial sector, driven by logistics and warehousing, maintains steady growth.
Boost in Investment Activities Despite Economic Uncertainties
In the vibrant yet challenging economic environment of late 2024, a remarkable surge in investment activities was observed in China and Hong Kong. According to Colliers, this uptick occurred despite an uncertain economic climate. In Hong Kong specifically, investors turned their attention to properties with substantial discounts or those that could be repurposed for alternative uses. These assets often included properties under receivership or being sold at a loss. Active participants in these transactions were well-capitalized cash buyers and end-users who seized the opportunity to acquire undervalued properties.
The retail sector emerged as a pivotal driver of changes in capitalization rates during the final quarter. Consumer spending experienced a significant boost during the festive season, positively impacting retail sectors in cities like Auckland, China, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Bengaluru. This surge in consumer activity provided a much-needed impetus to the retail market, underscoring its resilience and adaptability.
However, not all sectors fared equally well. The office sector encountered challenges as new high-quality green buildings entered the market, particularly in some locations. Nevertheless, opportunities arose in core areas where demand remained robust. On the other hand, the industrial sector, primarily fueled by logistics and warehouse assets, demonstrated stable growth while exercising caution regarding the abundant supply of new facilities.
From a journalist's perspective, this report underscores the adaptability and resilience of the Asia-Pacific real estate market. Despite economic uncertainties, investors remain optimistic and strategic, seeking value in discounted or repurposable assets. The retail sector's performance during the festive season serves as a reminder of the importance of consumer sentiment in driving market dynamics. Overall, the report suggests that while challenges persist, there are ample opportunities for those who can navigate the evolving landscape with foresight and flexibility.
In 2024, the logistics sector in Hong Kong faced notable challenges, with rental prices showing a decline. According to a recent report from Knight Frank, Hong Kong's logistics rents dropped by 3.2% compared to the previous year, with a more pronounced decrease of 1.9% during the latter half of the year. This trend is expected to continue over the next 12 months, affecting not only Hong Kong but also other major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The downturn in these markets can be attributed to various factors, including an oversupply of new developments and economic headwinds.
On a broader scale, while most cities in the Asia-Pacific region maintained relatively stable rental rates in the second half of 2024, the overall growth rate for the entire region slowed significantly. In fact, rent growth decelerated to just 0.2%, a stark contrast from the robust 7% increase seen in 2023 and the modest 2% gain in the first half of 2024. Notably, mainland Chinese markets experienced substantial declines, with Beijing and Shanghai witnessing rent drops of between 14% and 15%. However, some markets showed resilience, such as Melbourne, which saw a 6.7% increase due to limited land availability, and Greater Kuala Lumpur, where the introduction of high-quality industrial spaces boosted rental growth by 5%.
The future of logistics real estate may be shaped by geopolitical uncertainties. The possibility of increased tariffs under a potential second Trump administration could lead to significant changes in global supply chains. Logistics companies will need to navigate this complex landscape carefully, balancing cost management with strategic expansion. As Tim Armstrong, global head of occupier strategy and solutions at Knight Frank, pointed out, businesses must adopt a cautious yet opportunistic approach to ensure they remain competitive and adaptable in an ever-changing market environment.