Unraveling the Dynamics of the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate
Impact of US Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Speculation
The growing anticipation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has had a profound impact on the pound-dollar exchange rate. As market expectations surged, the pound began to gain strength against the dollar. This upward trend is not only influenced by the potential rate cut but also by various other factors in the global economic landscape. The CME FedWatch tool's indication of an 83% chance of a rate cut has injected a sense of certainty into the market, leading investors to shift their portfolios towards the pound. This shift in sentiment has driven the pound to reach new heights against the dollar, with a 0.2% increase in its value. However, the doubts raised by Fed governor Michelle Bowman have introduced a note of caution, reminding investors of the uncertainties surrounding the rate cut decision.The impact of this speculation extends beyond just the exchange rate. It also affects other aspects of the economy, such as inflation and borrowing costs. If the Fed does cut rates, it could lead to increased borrowing and spending, which may have a positive impact on economic growth. On the other hand, if the rate cut is delayed or not implemented as expected, it could lead to a slowdown in economic activity. Therefore, investors are closely monitoring the situation and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
UK Economy and Its Effect on the Pound
The gains in the pound against the dollar were tempered by concerns over the UK economy. Economic output data for October is due to be released on Friday, and analysts expect a modest contraction of 0.1% month on month. If the data shows a deeper decline, it could weigh on the pound and potentially encourage investors to bet on more aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of England in 2025. This highlights the delicate balance between the pound's performance against the dollar and the health of the UK economy. A weak UK economy could lead to a depreciation of the pound, while a strong economy could support its value. Therefore, investors are closely watching the economic indicators and waiting for the release of the October data to get a better understanding of the UK economy's trajectory.In addition to the October data, other factors such as Brexit and political uncertainties also play a role in shaping the UK economy and the pound's value. The ongoing negotiations between the UK and the EU, as well as the political instability within the UK, have created an uncertain environment for investors. These factors add an extra layer of complexity to the already challenging task of predicting the pound's performance. Therefore, investors need to be vigilant and consider all these factors when making investment decisions.
Sterling's Performance Against the Euro
Sterling pushed higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X), edging closer to its highest levels of 2024 against the single currency. Political uncertainties in France and Germany, along with expectations that the Bank of England will ease rates more slowly than the European Central Bank, have bolstered sterling's performance in recent weeks. These factors have created a favorable environment for the pound against the euro, leading to its upward movement. The difference in the monetary policies of the two central banks has also played a role in driving the pound's performance. If the Bank of England eases rates more slowly than the European Central Bank, it could lead to a relative strengthening of the pound against the euro.However, it is important to note that these factors are not static and can change rapidly. Political uncertainties can be resolved, and monetary policies can be adjusted based on economic conditions. Therefore, investors need to stay updated on the latest developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. Sterling's performance against the euro is a complex interplay of various factors, and it is essential to consider all these factors when analyzing its trends.
Gold and Oil Prices and Their Relation to the Pound
Gold prices climbed on Monday morning following news that China's central bank had resumed its gold buying spree after a six-month hiatus. This provided fresh support for the precious metal, with spot gold gaining 0.4% and trading at $2,647.56 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,671.70 at the time of writing. The return of China's central bank to the gold market is seen as a positive development for gold, with IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong describing it as "good news for gold bulls." This increase in gold prices has a direct impact on the pound, as gold is often considered a safe-haven asset. When gold prices rise, it can lead to a flight to safety, with investors moving their funds into gold and away from other assets such as the pound.Oil prices also saw modest gains on Monday following the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime, which heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. Brent crude futures rose 1% to trade at $71.87 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 1.5% to $68.21 per barrel. The political upheaval in Syria has raised fears of a new wave of instability in the region, which has provided some support to oil prices. However, gains were limited by concerns over slowing demand in the year ahead. Saudi Arabia's price reductions and OPEC+'s decision to extend output cuts pointed to lower demand from China, suggesting that the market could soften further in the months ahead.The performance of oil prices also has an indirect impact on the pound. As oil prices rise, it can lead to higher inflation in the UK, which can put pressure on the pound. On the other hand, if oil prices fall, it can lead to lower inflation and potentially support the pound. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor the oil market and its impact on the UK economy and the pound.
In broader market movements, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) opened higher, advancing 0.3% to 8,335.35 points. For more details, check our live coverage here.U.S. Dollar's Dominance and Decline
Although the US dollar's dominance has eroded and there's a global decline in its preference, it still accounts for 59 percent of the world's central bank reserves. Even if BRICS aims to move away, it will take years and be partial. The US government is unlikely to allow de-dollarization without pushback, as it could lead to retaliatory measures like freezing dollar holdings.For nearly a century, the US dollar has been the world's "reserve currency." But now, the BRICS' challenge stems from their collective economic power. BRICS Plus' intent to dump the US dollar in bilateral transactions and aim for a more diversified monetary system is due to US financial sanctions against Russia. China has committed to introducing an alternative payments system independent of SWIFT, and the renminbi is showing potential as a challenger.
Besides using other national and regional currencies, BRICS states also aim to use digital currencies. Brazil even proposed a common currency for trade among member states. However, not all member states accept this suggestion. India, with close ties to the US, is cautious about a BRICS currency but has signed local currency trading agreements with some countries.
India's Cautious Stand
While India and the UAE trade in their own currencies, policymakers acknowledge the importance of the US dollar. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the government is not thinking to move towards de-dollarization. After Trump's remarks, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar clarified that India has never been for de-dollarization and there is no proposal for a BRICS currency.Over the years, the US' geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic dominance has been questioned, but most governments and corporations still borrow heavily in US dollars. Even Russia's Putin said a common BRICS currency is a long-term prospect. Analysts doubt the feasibility of implementing coordinated measures soon.
There are reports that bankers are unconvinced about BRICS' ability to create an alternative to SWIFT. There are fears that corporations in some BRICS member states may have difficulties making and receiving payments outside the group. From the Indian perspective, the strategic relationship with the US is too important.
US President-elect Trump's Stance
Trump has warned BRICS countries that if they attempt to replace the US dollar, they will face "100 percent tariffs" and lose access to the US economy. His declaration followed advice from advisers to take tough measures against countries seeking to undermine the dollar's "supremacy."During his last presidency, Trump granted sanctions waivers for some countries trading with Iran. In his second term, he may adopt a similar pragmatic approach. If the US dollar becomes stronger, US exports will become more expensive and less competitive, and US consumers will pay more for imported products.
It remains to be seen how determined BRICS member states will be to achieve their aim, and it may take a long time before they evolve a payment system that can rival SWIFT.Теории снижения цен
С начала года рис подорожал на 5,67%, а пшено на 3,71%. В то же время крупа гречневая-ядрица показала снижение цен на 6,83%. Экономист Мария Долгова указывает на несколько факторов, влияющих на эту тенденцию. Гречка входит в число наиболее популярных круп в нашей стране, и ее внутреннее потребление стабильно от сезона к сезону, составляя 350 – 400 тыс. тонн в год. В последние годы производство гречки значительно превышает спрос. В прошлом году, благодаря рекордному урожаю, выпуск этого вида крупы достиг历史性 максимума и составил 542 тыс. тонн. Товарные запасы у производителей обеспечили существенное превышение предложения над спросом и усиление конкуренции за покупателей в текущем году, что способствовало снижению потребительских цен.
Однако в ноябре Росстат зафиксировал незначительное повышение потребительских цен на гречку – на 0,2%. По мнению Долгова, это может быть связано с ростом оптовых цен на гречневую крупу у ряда крупозаводов из-за качества гречихи нового урожая. Но она подчеркнула, что существенного повышения цен не будет.
Пerspectives for the future
Кроме того, в этом году отечественный урожай риса превышает прошлогодний и стремится к рекордному уровню. Это станет сдерживающим фактором для существенного роста цен в будущем. Такие изменения в рынке продовольствия имеют важное значение для всех участников – от потребителей, которые могут получить продукцию по более доступным ценам, до производителей, которые должны адаптироваться к новой ситуации.
Ранее стало известно, что барнаульское предприятие «Вега-инжиниринг» ведет расследование причин запрета в Белоруссии на выпускаемую им гречку. Это также может повлиять на рынок и на цены на гречку в целом. Все эти факторы вместе формируют сложную картину рынка и определяют будущее развития цен на эту важную продовольственную продукцию.