journalfront

Currencies

Bitcoin's "Champagne Moment" and Future Predictions

2024-12-11

It has been an eventful journey. The surging of Bitcoin beyond $100,000 was a moment to celebrate, yet since the Fed's easing cycle began on September 18 and especially after the U.S. election, the digital asset class has had a lot to embrace and process.

Unraveling Bitcoin's Path in a Changing Landscape

Bitcoin Adoption Momentum: A Steady Force

Among digital assets, Bitcoin stands out with the most comprehensive regulatory support currently. In the US, one can gain exposure to Bitcoin through various means like native holdings, futures, ETFs, asset management products, or options. Its fixed ultimate supply of 21 million coins and a well-defined "monetary policy" make it an attractive option. With a better-understood investment narrative and context, Bitcoin is expected to be more integrated into individual, advised, and institutional portfolios. Adoption momentum will continue to drive Bitcoin's long-term price, while macro factors influence short and medium-term fluctuations. Every time a Bitcoin-skeptical article surfaces, it only reaffirms the persistence of this momentum.There is still ample room for Bitcoin's adoption to grow. Its unique features and the growing interest from various sectors ensure its continued relevance. As more investors recognize its potential, Bitcoin will likely play a more significant role in the global financial landscape.

Lower Bitcoin Volatility on the Horizon

The increasing number of Bitcoin holders and the availability of a wider range of financial instruments to access Bitcoin's price will help dampen its volatility. Options on Bitcoin ETFs in the US will enable more sophisticated and accessible risk management strategies. This has two important implications. Firstly, institutional-grade investors with specific risk management requirements and a more stable approach may be able to hold Bitcoin with the help of options. Secondly, retail investors can use the protection properties of options to avoid selling positions in a weak market, thereby reducing drawdowns. Additionally, retail investors are likely to sell Bitcoin call options against long ETF positions, a yield strategy allowed in retirement accounts, which will further depress options prices and volatility.This trend towards lower volatility is beneficial for the overall stability of the Bitcoin market and attracts a wider range of investors. It shows that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset and becoming more accessible and manageable.

Greater Sustained Breadth and the "5%-er Conundrum"

In the month following the US election, the broad-based CoinDesk 20 Index nearly doubled, outperforming Bitcoin's strong performance. The CD20/bitcoin ratio also saw a significant rise, as Ethereum and other blockchain assets came alive on the promise of more dedicated and usable digital asset regulation with the incoming administration in 2025. This trend is expected to continue, with the CD20's exposure to top digital assets reflecting the growth side of crypto along with Bitcoin's "store of value" appeal.For "5%-ers" - those investors who want to allocate to digital assets but lack the time to become experts in specific sectors or time the market - this presents a dilemma. In traditional asset classes, indexing provides a solution for access, diversification, and automatic rebalancing. We predict that regulatory authorities will allow investors to enjoy these benefits through easy-to-access wrappers.This development highlights the need for innovative solutions in the digital asset space to meet the diverse needs of investors. It also shows the potential for broader participation and growth in the crypto market.

Tallahassee, Florida is at the forefront of a significant financial discussion. Precious metals like gold and silver, which have long been regarded as valuable assets, are now under scrutiny for their potential to become legal tender within the state. Florida's Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis, is leading the charge with a comprehensive study aimed at exploring how these metals can be integrated into the state's economic landscape.

Why Precious Metals? A Viable Alternative

Supporters of making gold and silver legal tender argue that they offer a reliable alternative to the traditional U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies. These precious metals have withstood the test of time, serving as a store of value for thousands of years. As Jimmy Patronis stated in a recent statement, "This is an exciting initiative that has the potential for enormous growth in our state. Gold and silver have been trusted assets for thousands of years, and it makes perfect sense to use them as legal tender." The proposed measures also include certain tax exemptions to ensure that gold and silver are not taxed as personal property, further incentivizing their use.

How the Study Will Proceed

The study, which will be conducted by the Florida Department of Financial Services, will focus on physical gold and silver in the form of bars and coins. This approach allows for a tangible and accessible form of these precious metals. By examining their practical applications and potential impact on the state's economy, the study aims to provide valuable insights and recommendations. It will delve into various aspects such as the logistics of accepting gold and silver in transactions, the regulatory framework needed to support their use, and the potential benefits and challenges associated with this transition.

The History of the Gold Standard

At one time, the U.S. dollar was backed by gold under the "gold standard." This system provided a sense of stability and confidence in the currency. However, since 1971, gold has not been directly exchanged for U.S. dollars. Despite this, the idea of using gold as a backing for currency has resurfaced in recent years. Several states, including Utah, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, have passed legislation allowing gold and silver to be spent as legal tender. This growing trend indicates a shift in public perception and a desire for more diverse forms of currency.

The Current Prices of Gold and Silver

As of midday Wednesday, gold futures were valued at $2,757 per ounce, nearing the all-time high reached in late October. This significant increase in price reflects the growing interest and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Silver, on the other hand, was just shy of $33 per ounce on the same day. Although its all-time record price was $49.95 per ounce in January 1980, it experienced a significant crash known as "Silver Thursday." Understanding these price movements is crucial in assessing the potential of gold and silver as legal tender and their impact on the economy.FloridaMoneyPolitics

Российские грузоперевозчики находят себя в сложной ситуации. Они оценивают будущее года с пессимизмом, ведь увеличение проблем связанных с машинами и кредитом, а также кадровым голодом, может привести к росту тарифов на логистику.

Трудности и перспективы

Стоимость грузовых автомобилей

Средняя стоимость грузового автомобиля сегодня составляет около 15 миллионов рублей. Учитывая выросшие ставки утильсбора и расценки по кредитам, это становится неподъемной ценой для большинства транспортных компаний. Например, некоторые старые расценки уже «не вывозят». И даже лизинговые компании вернули себе от 16 до 19 тысяч грузовых автомобилей из-за неплатежей.

Проблемы с техникой

После ухода европейских и других иностранных производителей с нашего рынка в 2022 году, российские перевозчики сталкиваются с трудностями при переводе на китайскую технику. Налаженная сервисная составляющая бизнеса начала рушиться, а замена запчастей задерживается. Как сообщил операционный директор транспортной компании Dentro Илез Хамурзиев, «с китайцами просто беда. Наши механики и автослесари не знают работать с ней, и договориться с производителями не получается. Я сам лично за последние полгода два раза ездил в Китай, но безрезультатно».

Тарифы на перевозку

Чтобы решить проблемы, увеличение тарифов на перевозку как минимум на 20% может быть необходимым. Это может привести к росту инфляции, которая уже с трудом сдерживается властями. Однако правительство объявило о выделении еще 18 миллиардов рублей на программы льготного автокредитования и автолизинга. Эта поддержка может помочь снизить остроту проблем перевозчиков.

Рентабельность грузоперевозок

За два минувших года доля грузооборота, перевозимого отечественным автотранспортом, увеличилась на 7%, до 320,7 млн тонно-километров. В то же время за период с января по ноябрь этого года рентабельность автомобильных грузоперевозок снизилась на 10% год к году. Это показывает, что尽管增加了货运量，但运输公司的盈利能力仍在下降。