The Potential for Bitcoin to Reach $250,000
Draper primarily views Bitcoin as a world-class payment technology that could start to take over a greater share of the modern financial system. In a recent interview, he noted, "Bitcoin is just better technology than using banks and governments as the trusted third party."Since Bitcoin runs on the blockchain, it is transparent, global, open, and theoretically impervious to outside hackers. Moreover, it is decentralized, meaning no central authority controls it.Even with this superior technology, Bitcoin will need a lot to go right if it is going to hit $250,000. According to Draper, it will require mainstream adoption at a much faster pace than is happening now. While people are adding Bitcoin to their portfolios via the new spot Bitcoin ETFs, there is not nearly as much usage as there should be. In short, people are hoarding Bitcoin, but they are not using Bitcoin.Remember when predictions said people would be routinely using Bitcoin for everyday transactions? Or when people predicted that governments around the world would be adopting Bitcoin? That hasn't happened, with a few high-profile exceptions.The case that everyone talks about is El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. However, the results have been mixed there, with recent academic research suggesting that everyday citizens simply aren't embracing Bitcoin the way people thought they would.New Catalysts for Bitcoin
Still, something feels different this time around with Bitcoin. Perhaps it's the pro-crypto optimism surrounding the Trump administration, which appears willing to take active steps to promote Bitcoin. During the campaign, Donald Trump promised to support the Bitcoin mining industry and create a pro-business environment for cryptocurrency. In addition, he promised to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which would commit to buying 1 million Bitcoins over the next five years.Indeed, Draper points to this push for less government regulation of crypto and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve as two factors that could propel Bitcoin to $250,000. Draper is now expecting Bitcoin to hit $120,000 before the end of the year and then double in value next year.Previous $250,000 Predictions and Their Shortcomings
While the argument is certainly compelling, it's important to note that Tim Draper has been making $250,000 price predictions for Bitcoin for several years now. In 2018, he famously predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000 by 2022. The highest that Bitcoin reached during that period was $69,000.Then, amid the crypto market meltdown of 2022, Draper amended his Bitcoin forecast to $250,000 by mid-2023. That, too, did not come to fruition. While Bitcoin continues to hit new all-time highs, it has yet to break through the psychologically important $100,000 price level (although it has come tantalizingly close).Perhaps the reason previous $250,000 price forecasts have fallen short is because Draper focuses on mass adoption by online retailers as one of the keys to Bitcoin's future success. As he sees it, blockchain technology offers online retailers a superior option for processing transactions than credit cards, and it would seem to be a no-brainer to offer customers the option to pay in Bitcoin when checking out.No doubt, this is due to Tim Draper's paradigm of the world, which is highly informed by his experience in Silicon Valley. Online e-commerce was arguably one of the biggest innovations that came out of Silicon Valley's internet boom. But when was the last time you used Bitcoin to pay for anything online?Bullish on Bitcoin for 2025
From a different perspective, it's far better to focus on the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors, who are showing a real willingness to add Bitcoin to their portfolios. By opening up Bitcoin to these investors, the new spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a home run. In less than 12 months, these Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in tens of billions of dollars from investors. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT -1.32%) is leading the way, with more than $40 billion in assets under management.When you combine this institutional buying pressure with new government buying pressure that would result from the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, all signals appear to be flashing green for 2025. Bitcoin has a historical track record of turning in triple-digit annual returns, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Bitcoin eventually hits the long-awaited $250,000 price level next year.Key Insights from the Report
Compared to last year, the total year-to-date losses have shown a decline. In 2023, losses surpassed $1.75 billion during a certain period. This year, the losses have been mainly driven by significant incidents in May ($359 million) and July ($282 million). In November alone, cryptocurrency losses reached $71 million, with hacking accounting for a major portion ($70,996,200), while rug pulls contributed only a small percentage ($25,300). Interestingly, total losses in November were 79% lower compared to November 2023.
Immunefi's crypto losses report for November 2024 reveals that there were 24 hacking incidents and 2 rug pulls. To date in 2024, a total of 209 specific incidents have led to cryptocurrency losses. The top hacking event involved decentralized finance firm Thala Labs, resulting in losses of $25.5 million, but the funds were later recovered. Memecoin trading terminal application DEXX came in second, with $21 million lost due to hacking.
Impact on Different Chains
BNB Chain suffered 14 individual attacks, accounting for 46.7% of the total losses across targeted chains. Ethereum experienced 9 incidents, representing 30% of the total. Solana, Polygon, Fantom, Avalanche, Arbitrum, and Aptos each faced one incident, contributing 3.3% each. This shows the varying degrees of vulnerability among different blockchain platforms.
The report is based on the review and validation of publicly available data on hacking and fraud incidents. It's important to note that only rug pulls, which are projects created solely to gain users' trust and steal their funds, were considered in the fraud category. This provides a clear focus on a specific aspect of cryptocurrency fraud.
With the increasing popularity and value of cryptocurrencies, such losses have significant implications for investors and the industry as a whole. It highlights the need for enhanced security measures and vigilance to protect against these hacking and fraud activities.
The Early Days of Phoenix Television
KPHO was the first station to hit the local airwaves on Dec. 4, 1949. At that time, there were very few TV sets in the city and only one TV station. But in just five years, there were five TV stations. Now, due to digital and streaming, there are more than 100 possible off-air channels in Phoenix. People used to plan their nights around must-see TV programming. "You had a whole lineup of programs; it was appointment TV," Craft said.Mary Jo West was the first female news anchor in Phoenix in 1976. She recalls people saying things like, "Oh, I get to go to bed with you every night, or I have dinner with you every night." One of the nicest calls she received on her debut night was from a lady in Sun City who said, "Tell that blonde-headed tomato to go straight home and cook supper for her husband."
Back then, field crews had to carry around a lot of heavy equipment. They used an old three-quarter recording deck that had to be tethered to a control unit, a power supply, and the camera itself. Editing stories took several hours, and developing and cutting film was a time-consuming process.
The Impact of Technology on News Reporting
One of the biggest changes now is seeing how technology has replaced many people behind the scenes in production. Floor directors, camera operators, and audio and graphic specialists are now automated. "Today, if you go into a studio, you will see a lot of automated cameras and robot cameras," West said.Innovation has also improved efficiency and time. Editing stories is now digital, with fancy dissolves and special effects. "Life is so much easier," Craft said, reminiscing about the old behind-the-scenes chaos. "You would see somebody running frantically from the editing room up to the engineering area to put the videotape on the air as the anchor was talking about the lead-in to a particular story."
One of the most memorable photos from John's book is a KPHO weather girl from 1960 standing in front of a generic map with a pointer stick. Now, we have more sophisticated tools like digital maps and computer-generated graphics.
The Shift from Analog to Digital
In 2009, the industry shifted from analog to digital, improving quality and accelerating efficiency. "We can carry a TV station in our pocket," Craft said. Our crews can now go live with a cell phone and a backpack, without the need for cables or microwave vans. The smallest field cameras are not much bigger than a traditional still photo camera and can record hours on a single SD card.John even remembers when teleprompters were used on studio cameras instead of appearing in a reflective mirror in front of the lens. Scripts used to scroll on a roll of paper below the lens.
The Future of Television News
Rapid innovation has catapulted us into the future. From the first artificial news anchor in 1985 to the emerging AI news gaining ground in other countries, the future is full of possibilities. John's students are now learning to dream ever-bigger and anticipate the demands for new content and mediums.The House of Broadcasting is working to set up a new display at the Chandler Museum so that next year, people can see all the history of television news firsthand. It's a journey through 75 years of evolution.
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