Futures
U.S. Stock Index Futures and Economic Data: A Delicate Balance
2024-11-27
In the world of finance, Wednesday witnessed a subtle downward movement in U.S. stock index futures. Investors found themselves on the edge, eagerly awaiting key economic data that holds the key to understanding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy trajectory. The highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, is set to be released at 10 a.m. ET. According to economists polled by Reuters, prices are expected to rise by 2.3% on an annual basis in October, a notable increase from the previous month's 2.1% rise and above the Fed's 2% target.
Market Reactions and Analysts' Views
Even though the market has seemingly moved on from the U.S. inflation story, a sticky reading in the inflation data could potentially cast doubts on the Fed's plans to cut interest rates in December. As stated by ING analysts in a note, "Even though the market has largely moved on from the US inflation story, a sticky reading will add to doubts that the Fed needs to cut in December after all." The minutes from the Fed's November meeting, released on Tuesday, revealed that policymakers are uncertain about the outlook for interest-rate cuts and the extent to which the current rates are restricting the economy.Traders are now placing a 62.8% probability on the central bank lowering borrowing costs by 25 basis points in December, as per CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool. Additionally, they are anticipating roughly 75 bps worth of rate cuts by the end of 2025, a significant decrease from the approximately 250 bps in September, as per data compiled by LSEG.Global Concerns and Tariff Policies
There are growing concerns globally, particularly with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariff policies. His latest stance on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has the potential to push up prices, spark a trade war, and weigh on global growth. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) economists have forecasted that such tariffs could lift U.S. core PCE inflation for 2025 from 2.6% to 3.7% if fully implemented. Before Trump's victory, the expectation was for inflation to be at 2.3% next year.Stock Market Movements and Key Movers
At 07:08 a.m., Dow E-minis showed a minor decline of 6 points, or 0.01%. The S&P 500 E-minis were down 9.75 points, or 0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 E-minis dropped 69.75 points, or 0.33%. However, futures tracking small caps edged up by 0.7%. Equities have been on a rally this year, with Wall Street's main indexes and the small-cap Russell index trading near record highs. The benchmark S&P 500 is on track for its biggest one-month rise in a year and its sixth month of gains out of seven, as markets anticipate the positive impact of Trump's policies on local businesses and the overall economy.Investors will also be closely monitoring the second estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product, weekly jobless claims figures, and October's durables goods data, all due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Nervousness prevailed globally as China's state media warned about the potential for Trump's policy pledges to drag the world's top two economies into a destructive tariff war.Among the top movers, Dell (NYSE:DELL) slid 11.5% after issuing a weak quarterly revenue forecast. HP (NYSE:HPQ) also dropped 8.3% following a downbeat forecast for first-quarter profit, indicating a lackluster demand in the personal computer market. The sentiment spread to other tech names such as Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which fell 1.2%, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), off 0.6%, and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which dropped 0.4%.Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) lost 10.6% after forecasting fourth-quarter subscription revenue below expectations, likely due to weaker client spending on its human capital management software.Oil prices remained steady as investors kept a close eye on the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.