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Agriculture

"3 November 2024: Grain, Red Meat & Snow Updates"

2024-11-22

In the world of commodities, various markets are constantly in flux. Today, we bring you the latest updates on grain, soybean, and red meat markets. These sectors play a crucial role in global agriculture and trade, and staying informed is essential for investors and industry professionals alike.

Stay Ahead in the Commodity Markets

Grain and Soybean Futures: A Balancing Act

Grain and soybean futures witnessed little change overnight. Investors are carefully weighing the favorable South American weather against the signs of demand for U.S. agricultural products. The Commodity Weather Group noted that rain in the short term and again after the break next week is keeping most of northern Brazil stable. Weather models suggest precipitation in parts of southern Brazil and Paraguay, which could offer relief from dry conditions. However, disappointing showers will stress soybeans in a quarter of southern Brazil and two-thirds of Paraguay.Prices are being supported by strong demand for U.S. grains and beans. Corn sales to overseas buyers rose 14% week over week to 1.49 million metric tons, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia among the biggest buyers. Soybean sales were up 20% to 1.86 million metric tons, as China, Mexico, and the Netherlands all made large purchases. Wheat sales last week totaled 549,600 metric tons, up 45% from the previous week, with South Korea, Indonesia, and Japan among the buyers. Exporters also reported sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, 135,000 tons of soybeans to an unnamed country, and 133,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year that started on Sept. 1.On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn futures were up 1½¢ to $4.37¾ a bushel overnight. January soybean futures fell 1¾¢ to $9.76 a bushel. Soymeal was down 10¢ to $289.30 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.37¢ to 41.91¢ a pound. On the Kansas City Board, December wheat futures declined 1½¢ to $5.68 a bushel, while futures were unchanged at $5.67¼ a bushel.

Red Meat Output: A Year-on-Year Increase

Red meat production in the U.S. saw a significant year-on-year increase in October. Led by gains in beef and pork output, commercial red meat output rose 5% to 5.02 billion pounds. Beef production increased to 2.47 billion pounds, up 5% year over year, with cattle slaughter gaining 1% to 2.86 million head and average weight up 44 pounds to 1,418 pounds. Pork output rose 5% to 2.54 billion pounds as hog slaughter was up 4% from October 2023 to 11.9 million head, and average live weight was up 2 pounds to 287 pounds.However, veal production dropped 21% to 3.3 million pounds, and lamb and mutton output rose 4% to 11.7 million pounds. In the first 10 months of 2024, commercial red meat production rose 1% from the same timeframe a year earlier to 45.8 billion pounds, with beef output up narrowly and pork production up 2% year over year.

Snow Forecast: Winter's Arrival in the North

Snow is expected in parts of eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota this afternoon, with only a “dusting” forecast along the Canadian border. More snow is expected late tomorrow and will last through Monday, with the best chance for an inch or more along the northern U.S. border. Winter weather advisories have been issued for much of northern Montana as sleet and freezing rain are forecast to start this afternoon. Two to 4 inches of snow is expected with some areas receiving more, and a light glaze of ice is forecast due to the freezing rain. The NWS warns that a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet and snow will make travel difficult at times through tonight, and by Saturday, the wintry mix becomes primarily sleet and snow.

Our farming son finds himself in a challenging situation on the family farm. With a lack of clear leadership from his parents, he wonders how to ensure the farm's future. Let's explore the issues and potential solutions together.

Unraveling the Cost of Farm Leadership

Point 1: The Hard Decision of Farm Inheritance

Owners of farms often face the tough choice of whether to keep the land within the family. It's a complex decision, knowing that some children may not value the assets as much as others. If the goal is to keep the farming legacy alive, it might mean that non-farming heirs receive less. This dilemma showcases the difficult trade-offs that come with leadership on the farm. 1: Consider a scenario where a father must decide which child will inherit the main farm. Each child has their own dreams and aspirations, and the decision may not please everyone. It requires a deep understanding of the family dynamics and a willingness to make tough choices for the greater good. 2: This hard decision not only affects the distribution of assets but also has a ripple effect on family relationships. It can lead to tensions and misunderstandings if not handled carefully. The farm son in our story is acutely aware of these challenges and is seeking guidance.

Point 2: The Focus on Goals Amidst Dislike

Great leaders in farming, like those in any field, must strive to do what's best for everyone. This often means sacrificing personal popularity and dealing with the fact that some people may not like their decisions, even if they are made with the best intentions. 1: Imagine spending countless hours thinking about every possible solution and how each family member might react. The pressure to make the right choice is immense, but great leaders persevere. They know that in the long run, their focus on the goals will benefit the farm and the family as a whole. 2: However, it's not an easy path. There will be those who disagree and may even hold a grudge. But a true leader understands that this is part of the job. They remain steadfast in their commitment to the farm's future, despite the potential for personal dislike.

Point 3: Dealing with Family Separation

Making hard decisions on the farm can lead to unexpected consequences, such as family members separating or even avoiding important family events. Parents may find themselves in a position where they can't defend their decisions, even if they believe they are right. 1: Picture a situation where a distribution plan is implemented, and some children react negatively. They may choose to distance themselves from the family or even cut off communication. This is a painful reality that great leaders must face. 2: Despite the potential for family rifts, leaders know that they must move forward. They understand that sometimes, the greater good requires tough decisions, even if it means sacrificing some relationships.In conclusion, our farming son's story highlights the importance of parents accepting the cost of leadership. Without it, farms can face a difficult transition and may even be lost. It's a lesson that applies not only to farming but to any family or organization. By recognizing the challenges and making the tough choices, we can ensure a brighter future for the next generation.

President-elect Donald Trump's decision to name Brooke Rollins of Texas to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sparked significant interest. Rollins, with her extensive background in agriculture and leadership, is set to play a crucial role in safeguarding American farmers and shaping agricultural policies.

Trump's Agricultural Leadership Choice: Brooke Rollins

Background and Education

President-elect Donald Trump announced on Saturday his intention to appoint Brooke Rollins from Texas as the next Secretary of Agriculture. Rollins is the president and CEO of the pro-Trump America First Policy Institute. Trump praised her, stating that as the next USDA secretary, she will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are the backbone of the country. Rollins graduated from Texas A&M University with an undergraduate degree in agriculture development. Growing up in the small and agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, she has a deep-rooted connection to the agricultural world. Her years of leadership involvement with Future Farmers of America and 4H, along with her generational family farming background, have equipped her with practical experience and policy credentials at both the state and national levels.

She guided her four kids in their show cattle careers, demonstrating her hands-on approach to agriculture. This diverse background has made her a well-rounded candidate for the position.

Roles and Achievements

During the first Trump administration, Rollins served in several important roles. She was with the Domestic Policy Council and also served as the director of the Office of American Innovation and assistant to the president for strategic initiatives. In these positions, she developed and managed the transformational domestic policy agenda of the Trump Administration, leading to historic achievements for the American people.

A conservative lawyer, Rollins earned her law degree at the University of Texas. Later, she served as the policy director for former Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who was the secretary of Energy in the first Trump administration. She also ran the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank, for 15 years, bringing her extensive policy expertise to the table.

USDA's Responsibilities and Current Initiatives

If confirmed by the Senate, Rollins will run a crucial agency that administers roughly $213 billion in mandatory and discretionary funding. The current secretary is Tom Vilsack, a former governor of Iowa. USDA manages food safety practices, conducts agriculture and conservation research, handles farm management, and administers the government's largest food benefits program for low-income families, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The agency also provides federal grants for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).

During the first Trump administration, Rollins played a significant role in these areas. Now, with the Biden administration's climate and clean energy program, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, USDA is implementing portions of it. Over the next five years, the IRA will provide USDA with about $20 billion for conservation programs that mitigate climate change. However, Republicans have been critical of the climate law and have vowed to claw back some of the funds. Rollins is likely to work closely with former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom Trump says he will nominate to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy, if confirmed by the Senate, has publicly voiced his plans to influence the agriculture industry.

Farm Bill Delays and Future Work

One of the big efforts for the next secretary is to work with Congress to finalize the delayed farm bill that sets agriculture and conservation policy for the next five years. A significant portion of the farm bill consists of the nutrition program, or SNAP. Rollins will face the challenge of navigating these complex issues and ensuring the well-being of American farmers and the agricultural sector.

With her extensive experience and leadership skills, Rollins is well-positioned to take on this important task and make a positive impact on the agricultural landscape.